On December 19, Indian historian Ramachandra Guha was arrested while peacefully demonstrating against India’s Citizenship Amendment Act, which openly discriminates against Muslims in its treatment of immigrants from neighboring countries.
In this commentary for Project Syndicate’s special year-end magazine, Guha reflects on the erosion of India’s democratic institutions under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. Subscribe today to receive The Year Ahead, 2020.
laments the country's transformation into a Hindu-nationalist state under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
发自波士顿—2019年最令人担忧的其中一则新闻并未像预计那样引发美国或欧洲媒体的关注。但中国的经济放缓以及印度可能发生的增长急剧减速或许会在2020年引发更多关注。
国际货币基金组织,亚洲开发银行和经合组织已经将印度2019~2020年度的增长预期下调至6%左右,也是近十年以来最低的数字。其他机构则声称即使是该数字也过于乐观了,同时给出了更黯淡的说法。比如最近才卸任印度政府首席经济顾问的阿尔文·苏布拉马尼安(Arvind Subramanian)一直在各种经济指标的相互印证基础上指出经济增长可能低至3.5%。
在中国,GDP增速已从2007年的14.2%放缓至2018年的6.6%,而国际货币基金组织则预测该速率到2024年会降至5.5%。中国和印度的快速增长已使数百万人摆脱了贫困,因此当前的放缓可能会阻碍贫穷人口生活的改善进度。
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