With the planet increasingly likely to cross crucial climate tipping points over the next decade, there is no shortage of dire predictions about the world’s impending end. But if we take immediate steps to transform our economic systems to prioritize well-being over profit, we can avert societal collapse.
STOCKHOLM/BRUSSELS/OSLO –Dire predictions about the impending collapse of civilization have become almost common place. Okay, doomers – enough.
Yes, humanity faces existential risks. In the coming decades, billions of people in the world’s poorest economies will be hit the hardest. It is now more likely than not that the planet will cross multiple climate tipping points.
A challenging future undoubtedly awaits, with rolling shocks shaking governments everywhere to their core. And, yes, we have only ourselves – or, more precisely, the wealthiest among us – to blame. But is a collapse of our freewheeling, endlessly inventive, often confounding civilization inevitable? Absolutely not.
As Mia Mottley, the prime minister of Barbados, told world leaders gathered in Egypt this week at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, “We know what it is to remove slavery from our civilization, to find a vaccine within two years for a pandemic, to put a man on the moon.” But the only solution to the current crisis offered by politicians is economic growth. But while growth is essential to pull the poorest countries out of poverty, resilient societies will be forged not by ever-greater wealth, but by greater social cohesion, good governance, and the capacity to innovate.
Two years ago, we launched the Earth4All initiative, an international collaborative effort by economists, scientists, and advocates to examine policy solutions that steer humanity away from collapse and toward resilience. We present our findings in a new book, Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity.
We explore two scenarios: Too Little, Too Late and The Giant Leap. In both scenarios, the global economy grows throughout this century. In the former, the rich grow richer, leaving the poor further behind. Social tensions rise. Governments struggle to deal with major shocks. The risk of regional collapse grows every decade. We can be certain that on our current path, the global increase in average temperature is likely to hit a catastrophic 2.5° Celsius, putting the world in grave danger. This is the path we are on.
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But it is not the only path. With extraordinary effort, societies can transform themselves into “well-being economies” that are more resilient to shocks. Social tensions fall. Global temperature stabilizes at around 2°C. This is the Giant Leap.
Earth4All can trace its origins to the Club of Rome-commissioned report The Limits to Growth, published 50 years ago. Back then, scientists used early computer models to show that Earth’s finite resources would eventually buckle under the weight of material consumption. Food production would fall, followed by a precipitous decline in population. At the time, the conclusion that pushing beyond the limits of the planet could lead to collapse shocked many people. Over the last 50 years, the world has followed the report’s worst-case scenario, and we are beginning to see deep fractures in Earth systems and within societies.
But we believe our future will be built on economic optimism, not despair. Our analysis concludes that any strategy to build fair and resilient societies must address poverty, inequality, gender imbalances, food insecurity, and energy access. The transformation we need hinges on tackling all of them together.
Redistributing wealth is needed to rebuild trust in democratic systems, which is essential to broaden political support for bold decisions. The policies we propose, including progressive income and wealth taxes, international tax alignment, and a universal basic dividend, would ensure that the richest 10% will have less than 40% of national incomes by around 2030 and further reduce inequality beyond this date. Addressing wealth and income inequality must also be closely linked to reining in the disproportionate greenhouse-gas emissions and biosphere consumption of the wealthiest. This is why a fair price on carbon is a smart way to redistribute wealth and cut emissions.
Without profound change, climate chaos, food insecurity, and poverty are likely to drive conflict and social turmoil in vulnerable regions, with spillover effects everywhere. As Mottley warned in Sharm El-Sheikh, we can expect a billion refugees by 2050. This is a reasonable estimate, given that, without immediate deep emissions cuts, the largely uninhabitable zones around the equator are expected to expand in the coming decades, encompassing heavily populated areas. High-risk countries include some of the most fragile and vulnerable states on Earth: Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Philippines.
Today, it may seem the world is as far from an Earth for All future as ever. But we found some room for optimism. We may have already reached a positive social tipping point: citizens want change. Our global survey finds that 74% of people in G20 countries want their governments to reform economic systems to prioritize well-being and the planet over a singular focus on growth and profits.
Our civilization often does the right thing when we have exhausted all other alternatives. This point has now been reached. Humanity’s future on Earth will be vastly more peaceful, prosperous, and secure if we do everything in our power to rebuild our economies to maximize well-being and planetary resilience rather than shareholder value.
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With German voters clearly demanding comprehensive change, the far right has been capitalizing on the public's discontent and benefiting from broader global political trends. If the country's democratic parties cannot deliver, they may soon find that they are no longer the mainstream.
explains why the outcome may decide whether the political “firewall” against the far right can hold.
The Russian and (now) American vision of "peace" in Ukraine would be no peace at all. The immediate task for Europe is not only to navigate Donald’s Trump unilateral pursuit of a settlement, but also to ensure that any deal does not increase the likelihood of an even wider war.
sees a Korea-style armistice with security guarantees as the only viable option in Ukraine.
Rather than engage in lengthy discussions to pry concessions from Russia, US President Donald Trump seems committed to giving the Kremlin whatever it wants to end the Ukraine war. But rewarding the aggressor and punishing the victim would amount to setting the stage for the next war.
warns that by punishing the victim, the US is setting up Europe for another war.
Within his first month back in the White House, Donald Trump has upended US foreign policy and launched an all-out assault on the country’s constitutional order. With US institutions bowing or buckling as the administration takes executive power to unprecedented extremes, the establishment of an authoritarian regime cannot be ruled out.
The rapid advance of AI might create the illusion that we have created a form of algorithmic intelligence capable of understanding us as deeply as we understand one another. But these systems will always lack the essential qualities of human intelligence.
explains why even cutting-edge innovations are not immune to the world’s inherent unpredictability.
STOCKHOLM/BRUSSELS/OSLO –Dire predictions about the impending collapse of civilization have become almost common place. Okay, doomers – enough.
Yes, humanity faces existential risks. In the coming decades, billions of people in the world’s poorest economies will be hit the hardest. It is now more likely than not that the planet will cross multiple climate tipping points.
A challenging future undoubtedly awaits, with rolling shocks shaking governments everywhere to their core. And, yes, we have only ourselves – or, more precisely, the wealthiest among us – to blame. But is a collapse of our freewheeling, endlessly inventive, often confounding civilization inevitable? Absolutely not.
As Mia Mottley, the prime minister of Barbados, told world leaders gathered in Egypt this week at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, “We know what it is to remove slavery from our civilization, to find a vaccine within two years for a pandemic, to put a man on the moon.” But the only solution to the current crisis offered by politicians is economic growth. But while growth is essential to pull the poorest countries out of poverty, resilient societies will be forged not by ever-greater wealth, but by greater social cohesion, good governance, and the capacity to innovate.
Two years ago, we launched the Earth4All initiative, an international collaborative effort by economists, scientists, and advocates to examine policy solutions that steer humanity away from collapse and toward resilience. We present our findings in a new book, Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity.
We explore two scenarios: Too Little, Too Late and The Giant Leap. In both scenarios, the global economy grows throughout this century. In the former, the rich grow richer, leaving the poor further behind. Social tensions rise. Governments struggle to deal with major shocks. The risk of regional collapse grows every decade. We can be certain that on our current path, the global increase in average temperature is likely to hit a catastrophic 2.5° Celsius, putting the world in grave danger. This is the path we are on.
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At a time of escalating global turmoil, there is an urgent need for incisive, informed analysis of the issues and questions driving the news – just what PS has always provided.
Subscribe to Digital or Digital Plus now to secure your discount.
Subscribe Now
But it is not the only path. With extraordinary effort, societies can transform themselves into “well-being economies” that are more resilient to shocks. Social tensions fall. Global temperature stabilizes at around 2°C. This is the Giant Leap.
Earth4All can trace its origins to the Club of Rome-commissioned report The Limits to Growth, published 50 years ago. Back then, scientists used early computer models to show that Earth’s finite resources would eventually buckle under the weight of material consumption. Food production would fall, followed by a precipitous decline in population. At the time, the conclusion that pushing beyond the limits of the planet could lead to collapse shocked many people. Over the last 50 years, the world has followed the report’s worst-case scenario, and we are beginning to see deep fractures in Earth systems and within societies.
But we believe our future will be built on economic optimism, not despair. Our analysis concludes that any strategy to build fair and resilient societies must address poverty, inequality, gender imbalances, food insecurity, and energy access. The transformation we need hinges on tackling all of them together.
Redistributing wealth is needed to rebuild trust in democratic systems, which is essential to broaden political support for bold decisions. The policies we propose, including progressive income and wealth taxes, international tax alignment, and a universal basic dividend, would ensure that the richest 10% will have less than 40% of national incomes by around 2030 and further reduce inequality beyond this date. Addressing wealth and income inequality must also be closely linked to reining in the disproportionate greenhouse-gas emissions and biosphere consumption of the wealthiest. This is why a fair price on carbon is a smart way to redistribute wealth and cut emissions.
Without profound change, climate chaos, food insecurity, and poverty are likely to drive conflict and social turmoil in vulnerable regions, with spillover effects everywhere. As Mottley warned in Sharm El-Sheikh, we can expect a billion refugees by 2050. This is a reasonable estimate, given that, without immediate deep emissions cuts, the largely uninhabitable zones around the equator are expected to expand in the coming decades, encompassing heavily populated areas. High-risk countries include some of the most fragile and vulnerable states on Earth: Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Philippines.
Today, it may seem the world is as far from an Earth for All future as ever. But we found some room for optimism. We may have already reached a positive social tipping point: citizens want change. Our global survey finds that 74% of people in G20 countries want their governments to reform economic systems to prioritize well-being and the planet over a singular focus on growth and profits.
Our civilization often does the right thing when we have exhausted all other alternatives. This point has now been reached. Humanity’s future on Earth will be vastly more peaceful, prosperous, and secure if we do everything in our power to rebuild our economies to maximize well-being and planetary resilience rather than shareholder value.