Policymakers in China and India must avoid their Japanese counterparts' mistake and accept that GDP growth will inevitably slow. There is a lot that they can still do to improve the welfare of their citizens, and help us cling to some hope about our planet’s future.
BOSTON – One of the most worrying news stories of 2019 did not receive the coverage one might expect from media outlets in the United States or Europe. But the economic slowdown in China, and the potentially steep deceleration in growth in India, will most likely receive considerably more attention in 2020.
The International Monetary Fund, the Asian Development Bank, and the OECD have downgraded their growth estimates for India in 2019-20 to around 6%, which would be the lowest since the beginning of the decade. Others claim that even this is optimistic and project much more dire narratives. For example, Arvind Subramanian, until recently the Indian government’s chief economic adviser, has argued, based on triangulating evidence on various economic indicators, that growth may sink as low as 3.5%.
In China, GDP growth has slowed from 14.2% in 2007 to 6.6% in 2018. The IMF projects that it might fall to 5.5% by 2024. Rapid growth there and in India have lifted millions out of poverty, and the slowdown is likely to impede progress on improving the lives of the poor.
To continue reading, register now.
Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.
On December 19, Indian historian Ramachandra Guha was arrested while peacefully demonstrating against India’s Citizenship Amendment Act, which openly discriminates against Muslims in its treatment of immigrants from neighboring countries.
In this commentary for Project Syndicate’s special year-end magazine, Guha reflects on the erosion of India’s democratic institutions under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. Subscribe today to receive The Year Ahead, 2020.
laments the country's transformation into a Hindu-nationalist state under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
BOSTON – One of the most worrying news stories of 2019 did not receive the coverage one might expect from media outlets in the United States or Europe. But the economic slowdown in China, and the potentially steep deceleration in growth in India, will most likely receive considerably more attention in 2020.
The International Monetary Fund, the Asian Development Bank, and the OECD have downgraded their growth estimates for India in 2019-20 to around 6%, which would be the lowest since the beginning of the decade. Others claim that even this is optimistic and project much more dire narratives. For example, Arvind Subramanian, until recently the Indian government’s chief economic adviser, has argued, based on triangulating evidence on various economic indicators, that growth may sink as low as 3.5%.
In China, GDP growth has slowed from 14.2% in 2007 to 6.6% in 2018. The IMF projects that it might fall to 5.5% by 2024. Rapid growth there and in India have lifted millions out of poverty, and the slowdown is likely to impede progress on improving the lives of the poor.
To continue reading, register now.
Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.
Subscribe
As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.
Register
Already have an account? Log in