As is usually the case, the outcome of the 2024 election will be heavily influenced by voters’ perceptions of economic conditions and the incumbent’s economic policies. While Donald Trump and Joe Biden are both highly unpopular, key economic indicators and recent polls suggest that Biden should be worried.
STANFORD – As the world splits into rival geopolitical and military blocs, economic ties are fraying, and political, military, and business leaders worldwide are growing increasingly anxious about America’s presidential election this fall. As is usually the case, the outcome will be heavily influenced by voters’ perception of economic conditions and the incumbent’s economic policies.
In 1980, a recession and high inflation gave rise to the “misery index” (reflecting the inflation rate plus the unemployment rate) and allowed Ronald Reagan to crush the incumbent president, Jimmy Carter. But US Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker’s aggressive policies to rein in inflation then caused a deep recession, dooming Republicans to large losses in the 1982 midterm elections. By 1984, however, the annual growth rate had reached 7%, and Reagan was handily re-elected.
In the looming contest between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden (both of whom have very high disapproval ratings), the economy, once again, is voters’ leading concern, followed by illegal immigration and abortion. On abortion policy, the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade kicked the issue back to the states, some of which have enacted stringent prohibitions. Democrats thus believe that the issue will weigh in their favor, particularly among suburban women.
STANFORD – As the world splits into rival geopolitical and military blocs, economic ties are fraying, and political, military, and business leaders worldwide are growing increasingly anxious about America’s presidential election this fall. As is usually the case, the outcome will be heavily influenced by voters’ perception of economic conditions and the incumbent’s economic policies.
In 1980, a recession and high inflation gave rise to the “misery index” (reflecting the inflation rate plus the unemployment rate) and allowed Ronald Reagan to crush the incumbent president, Jimmy Carter. But US Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker’s aggressive policies to rein in inflation then caused a deep recession, dooming Republicans to large losses in the 1982 midterm elections. By 1984, however, the annual growth rate had reached 7%, and Reagan was handily re-elected.
In the looming contest between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden (both of whom have very high disapproval ratings), the economy, once again, is voters’ leading concern, followed by illegal immigration and abortion. On abortion policy, the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade kicked the issue back to the states, some of which have enacted stringent prohibitions. Democrats thus believe that the issue will weigh in their favor, particularly among suburban women.