J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and the author of Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century (Basic Books, 2022). He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.
伯克利—过去十年,全球北方政坛因为过度担忧政府债务和赤字而陷入了高度狂乱。但两个最新苗头表明情况终于要改变了。
本月早些时候,我读了声名显著、知识渊博的肯·罗格夫(Ken Rogoff)发表在伦敦《星期日泰晤士报》上的一篇与英国脱欧相关的专栏。他最著名的工作是在这个十年之初就宣称,政府不可让债务-GDP之比攀升至90%以上。但在这篇专栏中,罗格夫认为“[他]一直不明白,为什么英国担心降低债务-GDP负担[目前为84%]的问题,目前英国增长温和,不平等性高企,并且……利率……在下降……”
随后,上个月月底,《金融时报》刊登了记者布兰登·格里利(Brendan Greeley)的文章,他的报道让他收到了来自负责任联邦预算委员会(CRFB)、他所谓的“惊慌失措的电子邮件”。CRFB是一家美国智库,曾向时任美国众议院预算委员会主席的保罗·瑞恩(Paul Ryan)授予财政责任奖。在这封电子邮件中,CRFB警告我曾经的老师奥利佛·布兰查德(Oliver Blanchard)在美国经济学会的演讲中所提出的“错误概念”。布兰查德的意思是,公共债务是一项工具,政府应该在需要的时候使用它。
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