Kishore Mahbubani
Says More…
This week in Say More, PS talks with Kishore Mahbubani, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore and the author of Living the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir.
Project Syndicate: Last year, you suggested that a prevailing “culture of pragmatism,” exemplified by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), explains the lack of major wars in Asia in recent decades. How should this inform efforts by Western diplomats to engage with Asia, and where do you currently see the kind of “geopolitical incompetence” that could lead to war?
Kishore Mahbubani: Western diplomats must first understand how much power has shifted from Europe to Asia. In 1980, the European Union’s GDP was ten times larger than China’s. Today, the two are roughly equal. Goldman Sachs projects that China’s GDP will be nearly double that of the EU by 2050. When power shifts, behavior must change. European diplomats have become addicted to sanctions and threats. They must now break that addiction, and return to the traditional means of diplomacy: persuasion and compromise.
Also, it was foolish of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to suggest the expansion of NATO to Asia. NATO’s militaristic culture would pose a threat to the longstanding peace in the region. More broadly, Europeans need to change their attitude toward Asia, learning from the region, instead of lecturing it.
PS: Though China has long sought a “quiet rise,” it seems to be acting increasingly disruptively, such as through its aggressive pursuit of territorial claims in the South China Sea and the Himalayas. How solid are China’s relationships with its Asian neighbors today, and where are the risks to regional stability most acute?
KM: It is perfectly natural for rising powers to become more assertive as they gain influence. China is no exception. Yet, as Harvard political scientist Graham Allison wrote, “Americans enjoy lecturing China to be ‘more like us.’ Perhaps they should be careful what they wish for.” After all, during its own rise, the United States fought wars, expelled other powers from countries where it sought a foothold, and acquired distant territories. China has done none of these things.
To be sure, there are issues and disagreements – including, notably, territorial disputes – that severely challenge China’s relationships with some of its neighbors, such as India, Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. But China’s relations with other neighbors – including most of the ASEAN countries – are more harmonious, thanks not least to deep economic ties. China-ASEAN trade has exploded from $40 billion in 2000 to $975 billion in 2022, providing a positive model for EU-Africa or US-Latin America relations.
As for regional stability, there are risks within Asia. But the biggest risk stems from the US-China geopolitical contest, which grows more dangerous practically by the day.
PS: Last November, you praised Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim for his pursuit of “institutional and economic reform rooted in democratic values.” How do you rate his government’s progress so far, including his efforts to join the newly enlarged BRICS grouping of emerging economies? What lessons from your time working in Malaysia do you hope the government considers as it pursues its goals?
KM: Malaysia has clearly demonstrated its resilience. Despite having had six prime ministers since 2013 – an indication of political instability – its economy grew from $328 billion in 2013 to $416 billion in 2023, and it is projected to reach $600 billion in 2030. Most developing countries would envy this record. And Malaysia’s positive economic performance is likely to continue: Ibrahim is poised to stay in office longer than his immediate predecessors, and with increased political stability comes a new wave of foreign investment.
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Like most of its fellow ASEAN countries, Malaysia maintains good relations with both East and West. Joining the BRICS won’t fundamentally change this foreign-policy orientation. But it would be a shrewd choice: whereas the G7 was 2.5 times larger than the BRICS in 2000, it is smaller today. The BRICS, unlike the G7, is a sunrise organization.
By the Way…
PS: A leader who stands out for having led a radical transformation is Singapore’s founder and longtime leader, Lee Kuan Yew, with whom you worked closely during your career. As you put it in your new book, Living the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir, Lee had a “free and independent” spirit, had “rebelled against” very powerful forces, and took “bold and unconventional leaps.” What are the most important lessons developing-country leaders today can learn from his example?
KM: The track record of Singapore’s founding leaders, including Lee Kuan Yew, is amazing. Singapore went from low- to high-income status in record time. I have tried to capture the “secret” of Singapore’s success with a simple acronym: MPH, standing for Meritocracy, Pragmatism, and Honesty.
Curiously, while countries typically ensure that, say, their football teams showcase their best talent, they often fail to hold their economic teams to the same standard. Argentina has been one example. But, with its commitment to meritocracy, Singapore attracts and selects only the best for its government – a model others should follow. As for pragmatism, Singapore learned it from studying the Japanese Meiji restoration; for example, it copied Western best practices, just as Japan did.
Honesty is the hardest to achieve. Few countries have achieved near-zero corruption. But some have gotten much closer than others, and reaped far-reaching benefits. Any country that applies MPH ruthlessly will definitely succeed.
PS: The first two chapters of Living the Asian Century are entitled “Born Poor” and “Still Poor,” and throughout the memoir, you include details of your remuneration, from “earning S$30 (then US$10)” while at Singapore’s ministry of foreign affairs to “finally” having enough money both to live on and to send your mother $1,000 monthly as a diplomat in Kuala Lumpur. Why the focus on your personal financial trajectory, and what should readers learn from your story about Asia’s rise?
KM: Looking back at my early years, I realize that experiencing real poverty in my youth may well have benefited me in the long run. Since the dawn of history, most of humanity has had to struggle to make ends meet. And yet, in recent decades, humanity has also made tremendous progress in reducing poverty, especially in Asia.
When I was born, in 1948, Asia was the region with the largest share of people living in poverty. Today, the region boasts some of the world’s largest middle-class populations, especially in China, India, and the ASEAN countries. The number of people enjoying middle-class living standards in these countries has exploded from just 150 million in 2000 to 1.5 billion today (out of a total population of 3.5 billion). By 2030, that figure could reach three billion.
I experienced this journey from poverty to middle-class comfort – and the sense of safety, contentment, and joy it enables – firsthand, and attempted to describe in my memoirs.
PS: Describing your time as the founding dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, you note that you reminded students that, “in the early part of their careers, they would succeed on the basis of what they know,” but then their success would also depend significantly on “whom they know.” When did that turning point happen in your own life?
KM: The turning point happened gradually. It probably began in 1982, with my posting as Deputy Chief of Mission in Washington, DC. During an earlier posting in war-torn Cambodia (in 1973-74), I had befriended Elizabeth Becker, a celebrated Washington Post correspondent. Once I was in Washington, she helped me to organize a profile of my new chef, Prema Suppiah. My standing in the Washington political circles soared.
Similarly, in my two postings in New York, I befriended luminaries like Henry Kissinger, Paul Volcker, Indra Nooyi, and Fareed Zakaria. These friendships opened all kinds of doors for me.
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