America’s Economy on the Edge
While the US economy appears to have avoided a recession so far, many forecasters still expect a mild one in the coming months, and leading economic indicators have continued their 14-month decline. The situation is precarious, and much will depend on fiscal and monetary policy.
STANFORD – Most major economies are flirting with, or tipping into, recession. While Canada and Sweden appear to have just pulled themselves back from the brink, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is already in a technical recession, following two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
In China – the world’s second-largest economy, and a major source of global growth in the years before the pandemic – the post-COVID rebound has already fizzled, leading the government to roll out a new stimulus plan. And while the US economy appears to have avoided a recession so far, many forecasters still expect a mild one in the coming months, with the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators continuing its 14-month decline.
Though labor is the largest cost for most firms, hiring in America has continued even amid growing concerns about declining orders. How should we read these mixed signals?