The contest between former US President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris underscores a stark contrast of policies and priorities on virtually every major issue, from economic policy to reproductive freedom to climate change. But Trump and Harris – like most Americans – seem to agree on one thing: China poses a serious threat to US interests and must be contained.
China’s leaders are well aware of this view, explains Ian Bremmer, Founder and President of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. But while they expect either US administration to be “antagonistic,” they seem especially anxious about a second Trump presidency, which would be more likely to bring a “further closure of US markets.” Whether they will respond with “relative quiescence” or a “more aggressive strategy” remains to be seen.
As Northwestern University’s Nancy Qian points out, it is not only China that will suffer if a new Trump administration imposes “sweeping tariffs” against the country. Such a policy, together with Trump’s other tax proposals, could cost Americans $500 billion per year, with the burden “borne disproportionately by lower-income households, which rely more on cheap imports.” If Chinese and US leaders want to avoid “tremendous economic losses for their people,” they will need to “recognize each other’s aims and limitations.”
But Yale’s Stephen S. Roach sees potential for a course correction. Yes, if Trump wins, he will “lead with tariffs” (which “will backfire”), and Harris does not seem “predisposed toward ending the US-China conflict.” But Harris’s selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as a running mate could be a game-changer. Given Walz’s experience in China and engaged interest in the country when he served in Congress, a Harris-Walz administration may well “prioritize re-engagement,” potentially delivering a breakthrough “equivalent to Richard Nixon’s rapprochement with China 52 years ago.”
The contest between former US President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris underscores a stark contrast of policies and priorities on virtually every major issue, from economic policy to reproductive freedom to climate change. But Trump and Harris – like most Americans – seem to agree on one thing: China poses a serious threat to US interests and must be contained.
China’s leaders are well aware of this view, explains Ian Bremmer, Founder and President of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. But while they expect either US administration to be “antagonistic,” they seem especially anxious about a second Trump presidency, which would be more likely to bring a “further closure of US markets.” Whether they will respond with “relative quiescence” or a “more aggressive strategy” remains to be seen.
As Northwestern University’s Nancy Qian points out, it is not only China that will suffer if a new Trump administration imposes “sweeping tariffs” against the country. Such a policy, together with Trump’s other tax proposals, could cost Americans $500 billion per year, with the burden “borne disproportionately by lower-income households, which rely more on cheap imports.” If Chinese and US leaders want to avoid “tremendous economic losses for their people,” they will need to “recognize each other’s aims and limitations.”
But Yale’s Stephen S. Roach sees potential for a course correction. Yes, if Trump wins, he will “lead with tariffs” (which “will backfire”), and Harris does not seem “predisposed toward ending the US-China conflict.” But Harris’s selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as a running mate could be a game-changer. Given Walz’s experience in China and engaged interest in the country when he served in Congress, a Harris-Walz administration may well “prioritize re-engagement,” potentially delivering a breakthrough “equivalent to Richard Nixon’s rapprochement with China 52 years ago.”