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Why Is the US Presidential Race Even Close?

The 2024 US presidential election represents both “politics as usual” and something unprecedented. The American electorate’s decision will be influenced not only by the quotidian concerns that typically structure election outcomes, but also by a uniquely polarizing, outsize personality.

CHICAGO – I teach a course at the University of Chicago on presidential elections, and I hear the same kind of question from friends on both the right and the left. The Republicans I grew up with in western Kansas cannot understand why Donald Trump is not far ahead in the polls, whereas the Democrats who surround me in Chicago wonder how it can possibly be that Kamala Harris is not running away with the race.

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