Richard Haass
explains what caused the Ukraine war, urges the West to scrutinize its economic dependence on China, proposes ways to reverse the dangerous deterioration of democracy in America, and more.
If the US Federal Reserve raises its policy interest rate by as much as is necessary to rein in inflation, it will most likely further depress the market value of the long-duration securities parked on many banks' balance sheets. So be it.
thinks central banks can achieve both, despite the occurrence of a liquidity crisis amid high inflation.
The half-century since the official demise of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates has shown the benefits of what replaced it. While some may feel nostalgic for the postwar monetary system, its collapse was inevitable, and what looked like failure has given rise to a remarkably resilient regime.
explains why the shift toward exchange-rate flexibility after 1973 was not a policy failure, as many believed.
发自剑桥——石油、矿物和农产品价格的大幅波动是过去几年最为突出的经济发展事态之一。在这一时期的大部分时间中大宗商品价格的大幅上涨几乎是无法回避的。布伦特原油在2020年4月新冠疫情第一波期间报价20美元每桶,而在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的2022年3月则达到了122美元的高峰。
石油并不是唯一出现价格飙升的大宗商品。铜价上涨了一倍;小麦提价了一倍有多;从2020年4月到2022年3月全球大宗商品价格指数几乎增加了两倍。这还是以美元计算的涨幅;要是以欧元、日元、韩元或其他货币计的话则涨幅更大。
然而较少人注意到的是许多大宗商品价格在今夏有所下跌。6月初至8月中旬油价下跌了约30%。对美国政治影响甚大的汽油价格在同一时期下降了20%,从每加仑5美元下降到4美元。整体指数下降了12%。
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