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Why a Global Recession Is Unlikely

The wave of gloomy forecasts for the global economy that emerged earlier this year were derived largely from statistical analyses of past data. But these analyses did not adequately account for the impact and legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic.

NEW HAVEN – Earlier this year, predictions that a recession would soon grip the global economy were rampant. But, more than halfway through 2023, China is the only major economy that appears to be at significant risk of a prolonged slump. In New York and London, and across Europe, stock markets are soaring. In Tokyo, the Nikkei hit a 33-year high in June. While some economies are struggling, a global recession now appears highly unlikely.