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Politics

La «Pax Americana» murió en Kabul

Aug 17, 2021 Brahma Chellaney

NUEVA DELHI – La toma del poder por los terroristas en Afganistán, después de la precipitada y torpe salida militar del presidente Joe Biden, dio un final innoble a la guerra estadounidense más prolongada. Es un hito que será recordado como el final formal de la Pax Americana —tambaleante desde hace ya mucho— y que baja el telón para la larga supremacía de Occidente.

En una época en que su preeminencia mundial ya sufría graves embates por parte de China, es posible que EE. UU. nunca logre recuperarse del golpe que este desastre estratégico y humanitario asesta a su credibilidad y prestigio internacionales. El mensaje que envía a los aliados de EE. UU. es que depender del apoyo estadounidense cuando más lo necesiten es un riesgo que asumen a su entera responsabilidad.

Después de todo, la catástrofe afgana se desarrolló después de que EE. UU. abandonara a su aliado —el gobierno afgano— y se asociara con los terroristas más mortales del mundo, los talibanes. El presidente Donald Trump acordó primero un pacto faustiano con ellos y luego el gobierno de Biden se apuró a ejecutar la salida militar dictada por el acuerdo, aun cuando los talibanes habían violado el acuerdo abiertamente.

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Brahma Chellaney

Writing for PS since 2009
171 Commentaries

Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Water: Asia’s New Battleground (Georgetown University Press, 2011), for which he won the 2012 Asia Society Bernard Schwartz Book Award.

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Redouane Assane Sep 14, 2021

Secular and democratic Afghanistan was a goal? For whom? The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (as it was known before the Taliban victory) was in no way secular, and was one of few countries in the world where hijab was mandatory for women. The population is overwhelmingly conservative and religious - was such a secular regime going to be imposed on them from above? Is that democratic? As for democracy - the record of Afghanistan’s selfish “leaders” shady seizing of power speaks volumes.
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Cary Fraser Aug 22, 2021

The Afghan disaster has revealed an unfortunate reality about American political life - the elite's political myopia and strategic incompetence. The Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld troika that came into office in 2001 initiated a series of policies that have eroded both American credibility and its legitimacy over the past two decades.
It is analogous to the Brezhnev era for the Soviet Union.
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Stefan S Aug 22, 2021

Some Pax! America has been at war for twenty years. But, I know what! Let's colonize them and stay for another 100! Why should other nations have to sort themselves out on their own? Best to think about a democratic, secular India...
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Abdella Abdou Aug 20, 2021

Writing in the left oriented site Counterpunch.org of august 19, Ron Jacobs presents a different view on the Taliban from that of Mr. Chellaney. He for example says “The Taliban are not crazy. They are primarily Afghans who are sick of foreign occupation. The crazy ones are the foreigners who thought they could occupy a people and a land and turn them into puppets of the US.” He also contends, despite their portrayal as crazies in the media, “the Taliban are much more than an armed militia with beards and big guns. Their version of Afghan nationalism and religious belief incorporates Afghans from all walks of life.” Not sure which versions of the Taliban will prevail. But it is reasonable to assume that the Taliban have learned the hard way from the failure of their ways. They will most likely moderate their views in order to survive in a new world.
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aethelwulf e Aug 18, 2021

Can the host of Jeremiahs explain why the GW Bush launched 20 year intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan been such a success, 6500 US dead later, plus dead from Allies like the UK and Australia?
And not made matters worse, like the violence spreading through Syria and W Africa.
Because only if it’s been such a success can it now be the “disaster” they are declaiming.
Many commentators march ahead looking over their shoulder.
Like the many in 1945 who bewailed post WW2 prospects in Europe.
Will the new Kabul Taliban merrily promote global jihad?
Far from clear.
They might like a spot of peace and quiet too, knowing exactly what would happen if they do mess up.
A year from now a lot of people may be lining up to thank Biden.
And ask why not 5 years ago.
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Mirek Fatyga Aug 17, 2021

Afghanistan is the beginning of an end to an attempted imperial breakout by the US, not to Pax Americana which is still remembered by our generation from the Cold War. This attempt went way beyond Pax Americana.

Unfortunately, upon the demise of the Soviet Union, US attempted what it has been accusing the Soviet Union of trying to do, namely land invasion of the Middle East with an intent to establish a system of satellite states which would also, conveniently, control a large portion of world oil supply. Afghanistan has always been a side show in this plan, which impacted the course of the war as it was never clear what exactly was the US trying to accomplish there. Afghanistan was an excuse for a much broader war that ensued, largely failed, and left the Afghanistan mission dangling aimlessly. Those who actually bought into the freedom story are paying the price now.

Ironically, this failure may restore, over time, Pax Americana.

It is useful to remember how the reality of Pax Americana emerged. In the 1930-ies, after Hitler came to power, he sent a delegation of German lawyers to the US to study southern racial segregation laws as an example for Germany. Ironically, Germans thought that some of these laws were too extreme for Germany. A book has been written about this episode so it is quite well documented. Fortunately for the US, it had FDR to keep things together, also aided by the decision of the Empire of Japan to attack the US territory directly. The attack allowed FDR to put the US firmly on the right side of history and to radically reset the US economic system, finally pulling the US out of Great Depression. But it could have gone either way, as an example of Argentina shows. Another fortuitous accident of history was the state of military technology at the time which made US mainland untouchable throughout the war. These accidents of history allowed the US to emerge as a temporary hegemon which lasted militarily until the Soviet Union got nukes and economically until ~1970-ies.

In summary, the US became the beacon of hope and freedom by comparison with unspeakable horrors inflicted on Europe and Asia by the Nazis, Comrade Stalin and the Japanese, aided by couple accidents of history. It took the US another 20 years, and pressure from the cognitive dissonance of being an alleged beacon of freedom to partly, grudgingly reform the racial laws that Hitler found so enticing.

This could happen again, unfortunately. Whether current period is the end of Pax Americana depends, to a considerable extent, on what goes down in the rest of the world. US can become, once again, an oasis of freedom by comparison. In this case, if the US can maintain internal cohesion, it may return to its prior role of being a sanctuary, an example, and a military backbone for liberal Democracies.

The defining problem of the XXI-st century is and will remain coping with the consequences of the population growth during the second half of the prior century. The consequence of this growth is severe pressure on resources which causes social pressures throughout the world. In the Western world the scarcity puts downward pressure on living standards, while in the developing world it puts an invisible lid on the development that is available. In both cases some form of populism, a response to inequality, is likely. The only cure for this scarcity is technological development of substitutes ,but this technological development is likely to consume the rest of this century. The prize goes to these societies which can maintain cohesion n the face of the pressure. The Gold Star goes to those who can also maintain a decent society and some measure of Democracy and rational governance. I no longer automatically bet on the US being the Gold Star winner, but I do not count it out either.

And the wild card if nobody wins the Gold Star? Thousands upon thousands of nuclear warheads, on top of missiles ready to go at the moments notice, germs in secret labs, who knows what else. Maybe Aliens can save us? Are you there, ET?
- David Lentz Aug 20, 2021
  
  yes the struggle will be against entropy as you elude to. Crop failures and drought will restructure the world. A world of 8 billion people. The mind reels
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Peter Schaeffer Aug 17, 2021

So sad, so true.
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Sambit Datta Aug 17, 2021

This opinion piece discounts a number of alternative scenarios that can unfold from the strategic American withdrawal. There is strong precedence of the CIA using potent
State and non state assets to further American geopolitical interests. This “defeat” and sudden vaporisation of the Afghan state, in my view, is a simplistic reading- rather it is a “recalibration”. Beijing should be most worried. Over the next decade CIA funded fighters from talib style jihadis will cross the Wakhjir pass into China’s Achilles heel, Xingkiang, and foment Uighur rebellion. Pakistan, the eternal geopolitical prostitute, will come under American influence once again to rebalance its dependence on Chinese largesse. The question for india is: what price will Pakistan ask of the Americans. Kashmir?
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Harsh Ray Aug 17, 2021

This self-inflicted defeat and humiliation are a reminder why wise political leadership is so critical to shaping any country's destiny. Reckless decisions wreak damage that often is irreparable.
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La «Pax Americana» murió en Kabul

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