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Fifteen years after the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers triggered a devastating global financial crisis, the banking system is in trouble again. Central bankers and financial regulators each seem to bear some of the blame for the recent tumult, but there is significant disagreement over how much – and what, if anything, can be done to avoid a deeper crisis.
圣地亚哥—想象两个国家。国家A存在略高于5%的GDP的财政赤字，国家B的缺口接近9%。此外，直到最近，国家A的公共债务极少超过GDP的50%，而国家B的公共债务一直在膨胀，很快就将接近国内产出的90%。
在这两个国家中，国家B更有可能遭遇货币危机，对吗？
未必。A是阿根廷。B是巴西。2018年以来，阿根廷比索跌去了一半价值。阿根廷外汇已基本耗尽，必须采取紧缩措施来确保国际货币基金组织（IMF）的500亿美元救助——即便如此也没能安抚投资者。与此同时，巴西里亚尔也有所贬值，主要是因为10月份总统选举结果不确定，并没有明显的金融风险。
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