skidelsky161_Busakorn Pongparnit_getty images_economic policy

静悄悄的经济政策革命

Feb 16, 2021 Robert Skidelsky

伦敦—宏观经济政策有大事发生。部分拜COVID-19所赐，旧正统正在发生新演变——但尚未有人认识到这一演变的影响，或此前的传统确实存在问题。

比如，在最近的访谈中，英格兰银行前副行长保罗·塔克（Paul Tucker）说：“现在，货币政策位于财政政策之后。”其他央行官员、财政部官员，以及经合组织和国际货币基金组织官员也持同样观点。

这些金融圣骑士从未或很少认识到的是他们在过去犯了多大的错误。《金融时报》近距离目睹了最近的跛脚管理，其在2010年鼓吹的减支“所造成的负面影响可能大于预期”。这是金融建制派最接近于承认错误的说法，但并没有说清几年前还大行其道的宏观经济政策理论离谱的程度。

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Robert Skidelsky

Writing for PS since 2003
178 Commentaries

Robert Skidelsky, a member of the British House of Lords, is Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 14 Comments on this article

Petko Miran Feb 23, 2021

It is really interesting how contemporary monetarists "conveniently" forget Friedman's warning on the constraints of the monetary policy, namely that the Central Bank has very strong contraction and very weak expansion influence on AD. Its actions in this situation must be seen as necessary prerequisites, and not as the main driving force. What is more, the monetary and fiscal policies are like the two engines of the economy plane and it is really ill-advised to rely just on the one and even "anathemize" the existence of the other, especially when all monetarists turned Keynesians overnight in 2007.
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Carlos Rodrigo Zapata Feb 23, 2021

Are ‘missions’ more important than the price mechanism as an allocator of resources? Can both coexist or can only one be possible at the expense of the other?

The problem is that profit has become the absolute north of the price mechanism, while the 'missions' mechanism can point to a broader and more diverse range of purposes, such as ensuring the restoration of climate balance, not lose sight of the sustainability of the interventions, even define goals and deadlines, etc. The point is that there can be no incompatible resource allocation mechanisms. Therefore, one of the mechanisms must prevail.

As the price mechanism only works under the assumption of the absence of limiting factors - otherwise the figure of price adjustments could not occur, so it is implicitly assumed that the planetary resources are infinite - then the price mechanism does not it may be the central resource allocation mechanism. In its place, the 'missions' mechanism appears as an alternative.

The question is how the pricing mechanism can be used as a complement in the allocation of resources. Although it does not appear as the best instrument, the carbon price may be the means that allows articulating these resource allocation mechanisms within the framework of a finite world, urged to resolve its serious imbalances and threats in the medium term.
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Renzo Mauricio Sarmiento Alvarez Feb 18, 2021

If this discussion occurs in developed economies, imagine yourself in the other economies. The orthodox monetary policy has been imposed as "good practice" and now the need for a fiscal policy is much more necessary in underdeveloped countries with little infrastructure. Exactly the orthodoxy was proposed to give investors confidence and in riskier markets the imposition of these - and the gains - have been correlated.
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Per Kurowski Feb 17, 2021

“Fiscal rules should be rewritten to allow for more active counter-cyclical policy and a much larger government role in allocating capital”

Holy Moley! To get more counter-cyclical policy get rid of the pro-cyclical risk weighted bank capital requirements, which, by assigning the sovereign a 0% risk weight and citizen one of 100%, already has way too much empowered governments to allocate capital.
https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2019/09/financial-communism.html
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Robert Wolff Feb 17, 2021

Neither monetary policy (setting Fed rates and Fed buying of securities to prop up their market values) nor fiscal policy (helicopter money from the Treasury Department to subsidize demand and supply shocks due to the pandemic) can be continued for a very long time. The question is "How Long?"

The continued value/power of the Dollar as the World's primary reserve and trade currency is the only reality keeping the US out of a deep recession/depression today It enables the US to apply economic sanctions on our enemies (Russia, Iran and China) and helicopter printed money (falling from the sky) to US zombie corporations and small businesses and individuals losing income due to the Coronavirus Pandemic and financially failing states and cities to survive the current crises. Helicopter money printed by the Treasury also allows US to import more goods than we export, and consume much more than we produce. Payback time is pushed into the indefinite future.

Never has the US ability to condemn our enemies worldwide and maintain domestic socio-economic stability depended so much on the value/power of the US Dollar to influence current events. But, as mentioned above, there is a time limit to this strategy, and many brilliant economic thinkers are predicting a bad ending in a massive dollar devaluation. Even Elon Musk has now bought billions in Bitcoins to hedge against such a future event.

In summary, the author's premise (and Janet Yellin's and other liberal economists and President Joe Biden's) to fully open the spigot of sky money to save the US economy and continue economic sanctions against our enemies is in line with the massive spending solution to the immediate crises Americans face, but he and his aficionados say little about how to stop a massive devaluation of the Dollar and American power when the feasibility of that strategy ends.

As former Treasury Sec'y Mnuchin said, we will cross that road when we come to it.
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Elizabeth Pula Feb 17, 2021

Well talk about economic fortunes. I Just loved reading the Publicity Release from Center Point Energy way down in Texas. Looks like all they and the STAKEHOLDERS are responsible for is setting the PRICE as high as possible, and of course that's all folks! Just like Bugs Bunny, looks like the carrot has disappeared into that dark hole of nothing, especially like any kind of public policy. you are on your own folks. We take the money and run with it. Catch us if you can. And, of course you all know the real most basic rule of the game is you can't! Just what do you think stakeholder means anyway? There is absolutely no public investment strategy other than to let the public prove the reality of NOTHING globally. Another great shot in a lousy escalating war! Of course, since it's silent, you didn't hear anything.
- Robert Wolff Feb 18, 2021
  
  Stakeholders, like you and I, may possibly have a say, but right now we have to rely on the mercy and fear of the Owners that we have a real stake hold in America. I current times we are their lackeys, and our fortunes are subject to their interests, not outs.
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Elizabeth Pula Feb 16, 2021

Based on the NO-RULES that are supporting the private/public regime for supplying power, and presumably everything else, like "WATER" in Texas, is just moving along as sreamingly well as the Options trades. So, 3million plus in Texas can be without power, with utility costs jacked-up to the max and who profits??? Keep moving like this and no one will need to worry about any thing.
- Robert Wolff Feb 18, 2021
  
  I have a psychological advantage over you, insofar as I realize the limits of abuse of power by politicians and corporate owners in America.
  
  As a member of the Military Community in America (not member of a paranoid local militia) what I know is that the financial and political elites in America are totally dependent on the support of the US Military, which is both historic Middle Class and drawing new American minorities into the Military Class (the historic Second Class in hierarchic modern society). If the Elites lose Our Support, we are quite capable of finding and instantiating another political/economic ideology that continues to support the US Military as their supporters, and a new Elite supported by the US Military that serves the survival of the American Nation.
  
  Have no Fear.
  
  We (US) are Here!
  - Robert Wolff Feb 18, 2021
    
    Would also add that the subtlety of the Democratic takeover of the Federalist Republic of the the Owner Class (established in the Federalist Papers by our Founding Fathers and their consequent securing of the US Constitution as the ruling Law) is moving along well, with the election of Biden and the Democratic Party to rule America for the next four (or eight) years.
    
    The Anti-Democratic rule of the Republican Party, revealed by the condemnation of Democracy in the takeover and rule of the Republican Party by Trump (a failed Fascist) is now replaced by a Democratic Administration (revolution against the rule of the Rich), and that We [Democrats] have four years to indoctrinate the American People that Democracy is better than the "Rule by the Rich".
    
    Note the Proud Boys, historical Rednecks fighting for the Populism of the idea that the Rich serve the interests of White Power, are now brought low and rethinking their position as Biden chastises them for rejecting Democracy in favor of Racism and Firstism of the White English Europeans who originally conquered the Amerindians, Spanish, French, Spanish and other contenders for dominion over the North American continent.
    
    The War will go on, is still undecided, but the solidarity of the [united] US Military to defend current day American borders and the [everchanging] philosophy/ideology that rules within, will be the decisive factor.
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  - Elizabeth Pula Feb 18, 2021
    
    Who is willing to put their life on the line for ????, and bow down to ????
    
    I hate to say this but I don't think there is anyone left in the US military that's willing to risk anything anymore for any of the US leadership. The leaders wouldn't even know how to march, can't set any kind of example, have no principles so why bother??? The Saudis are running the show anyway, so what we got, especially for the US military is absolutely nada to even dream about fighting for, and especially NOT risking your life for..
    
    Trump threw the last barb at McConnell, so the GOP is GOOP! Now, it's just move the remote control according to whoever and forever is the boss of the millisecond wherever they happen to be in Dubai.
    - Robert Wolff Feb 18, 2021
      
      And that is an issue I have brought up many times before. If the Elites, international Capitalist who use their foreign profits to buy up the wealth of the Middle Class and rule through controlling the money system (supply and demand) want to ensure the loyalty of the US Military then their actions must benefit the Middle Class from which the US Military is drawn, and they are doing the contrary -- i.e. depleting the power of the middle class from which the US Military is drawn.
      
      As the Elites diminutize the power of Middle Class Americans they also diminutize their support from the US Military as their Liege Knights.
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Michael Public Feb 16, 2021

I think this article falls into the trap of thinking that monetary and fiscal policy and the main tools for managing an economy when in fact the real toolbox is much, much larger. For example, import substitution, efficient cities, efficient energy systems, real innovation support, and quality STEM education systems can all make much bigger differences than trying to ram more cash down the biggest speculators' throats or alternatively fiddling with workers taxation - after all, the big fish don't pay much tax if any at all.
- Robert Wolff Feb 17, 2021
  
  Re:"... after all, the big fish don't pay much tax if any at all."
  
  They just get their profits subsidized by cheap loans (many forgiven), justifying Bernie Sanders' claim that what we have is "Socialism for the Rich." That's the American System!
  
  Consequently the government, if it wants to support social values, must guarantee private corporations profits, taxing the Public, since US corporations by law have no fiduciary (national or social) responsibilities, only responsibility to maximize the profits of their owners.
  
  These facts explain why the US cannot support climate change legislation without paying private corporations (through government spending and growing the national debt) to guarantee their profits if they also support the technology and operations necessary to limit greenhouse emissions.
  
  US Capitalism is often in direct with the interests of Society, and in America the private corporations always win, often to the detriment of Society.
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