Is the Outlook for the Global Economy Still Bullish?
With the latest monthly inflation data in the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States coming in higher than expected, markets are nervous and analysts are considering whether, and how, to revise their forecasts. But, despite much uncertainty, the evidence still supports cautious optimism.
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LONDON – Last month, I wrote about the central role of inflation trends in the outlook for the world economy in 2024 and beyond. Of course, there are many additional risks, which is why the forecasting community is hedging its projections with sensible caveats about various “known unknowns.” Chief among these are the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, the uncertainty about China, and looming elections in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere.