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Politics

Os EUA podem vencer a nova Guerra Fria?

Jul 14, 2022 Minxin Pei

CLAREMONT (CALIFÓRNIA) - O presidente dos Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, tem classificado o confronto dos Estados Unidos com a China e a Rússia como uma disputa aberta entre democracia e autocracia. Se isso for verdade, uma vitória americana vai depender não só da capacidade do país de superar seus adversários, mas também de seu sucesso em proteger a democracia em casa.

No primeiro imperativo, os Estados Unidos estão bem posicionados para ter sucesso, graças a uma série de golpes de mestre diplomáticos. Para começar, nas recentes cúpulas do G7 e da OTAN, Biden cimentou uma aliança ampla que inclui Europa e Ásia contra Rússia e China. Isso segue a mobilização rápida dos governos ocidentais para apoiar a Ucrânia e punir o presidente russo, Vladimir Putin, pela guerra por ele lá lançada em fevereiro.

Biden também tem tirado vantagem da agressão chinesa contra seus vizinhos para consolidar alianças americanas no Leste Asiático. A aliança Quad (Diálogo de Segurança Quadrilateral)– que inclui Austrália, Índia, Japão e EUA – vem aprofundando sua cooperação estratégica. Em suma, o governo Biden está provando sua capacidade de reunir os aliados democráticos da América no exterior para enfrentar seus adversários autocráticos.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 Comments on this article

j. von Hettlingen Jul 29, 2022

Minxin Pei sees Biden’s current battle for democracy against autocracy as a “new ccold war.” In his first 60 days in office, Biden had clashed with China and Russia. Although Putin and Xi Jinping declared a “no-limits” friendship between China and Russia during the Beijing Winter Olympics in February, Biden knows that a double cold war won’t be in American’s interests. It explains why he avoided raising Beijing’s hackles by not encouraging Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan in August.
In recent months Biden has been able to win the “cold war abroad,” by rallying allies against Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, because the US and its allies are “still far ahead of their autocratic adversaries in critical areas, not least military and technological capabilities.”
Pei says, since Russia and China “consistently engage in the kind of aggression and bullying that drives smaller countries into the arms of the US,” Biden needs to defend democracy at home in order not to lose credibility. Right now he is “losing the fight” to the GOP, with many Republicans believing that democracy itself has betrayed America, by allowing the “wrong” people to take charge. They have been using the “big lie” to undermine Biden’s legitimacy and push for new voting restrictions.
In order to ensure fair and free elections, Democrats “must overcome structural obstacles embedded in the country’s constitution.” The GOP has the largest Electoral College edge in over seven decades, because the Republican-leaning key battleground states in rural areas with small populations have disproportionate influence on the presidential election than the country as a whole. George W. Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016 won thanks to the Electoral College, despite having lost the popular vote nationwide.
Hence Republicans “face less pressure to temper their extremism” and are able to “pander to a radical minority, and still wield just as much power as Democrats.” Pei says a “minority rule and the rise of an illiberal regime in the US could unleash civil unrest, pitting a….disenfranchised majority against an increasingly authoritarian minority.” A country “beset by such turmoil” could hardly “lead a coaltion of democracies on the world stage.”
The GOP can also rely on a “poisoned media environment in which firms like Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News reap massive profits by promoting lies and conspiracy theories.” As the party caters to the rich and powerful, many business leaders like the GOP agenda – low taxes and small government. This wll have an impact on US foreign policy overseas. Without resources the US won’t be able to defend democracy and challenge China and Russia.
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Peter Schaeffer Jul 20, 2022

The Democratic party has already rejected the very idea of democracy. Consider the issues in the USA. The US Supreme Court held (recently) that Abortion laws should be determined by the democratic process. Predictably, the Democrats are outraged. So much for supporting democracy. The US Supreme Court held (recently) that climate laws should be determined by the democratic process. Predictably, the Democrats are outraged. So much for supporting democracy. The Democrats only like democracy when they get their way. Otherwise, they hate it.
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Mauricio Arellano Jul 17, 2022

Interesting way of defending democracy. Your recomendation is to destroy opposition? That sounds like autocracy.
- Barry Rosenfeld Jul 17, 2022
  
  Defending democracy means opposing anti-democratic organizations. Nothing in the article proposes to destroy anything.
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- Martin Wolf Jul 17, 2022
  
  An opposition aiming at destroying democracy itself is illegitimate. Support for such an opposition should be withdrawn. It is not a matter of destroying opposition per se. It is a matter destroying an opposition that plans to subvert the fundamental preconditions of liberal democracy.
  - Mauricio Arellano Jul 17, 2022
    
    Still sounds like autocracy. In a democracy parties should improve their offer, convince voters. Destroying or canceling opposition is something an autocrat would do.
    - Martin Wolf Jul 18, 2022
      
      Were the German authorities right to allow the Nazis to campaign freely in the 1930s?
      - Mauricio Arellano Jul 18, 2022
        
        The Nazis were wrong when in 1933 they passed a law canceling the opposition and Germany became a dictertorship.
        
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Robert Johnston Jul 17, 2022

Are the Republicans the new Tory Brexiteers?
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A G Jul 15, 2022

Indeed it is, The current Republican Party is a threat to America and the world.
- May 31, 2023
  
  This comment was removed by a moderator. Replies to this comment may also be deleted. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
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Os EUA podem vencer a nova Guerra Fria?

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