While a backlash against globalization has been gathering steam for a while, trade has so far held up well. But with US President Donald Trump imposing sweeping tariffs on trade partners, which are moving to retaliate, this might be about to change, with dire consequences for developing-economy growth and decarbonization.
BEIJING – The 2020s are shaping up to be a lost decade, at best, for economic growth. This will be particularly bad for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) in the short term, but it will leave us all worse off, not least by undermining the global fight against climate change. The parallels with the 1930s – when the world also faced a major economic shock, intensifying protectionism, growing nationalism, and the weakening of multilateralism – make the situation appear all the more ominous. Then, like now, geopolitics was king.
BEIJING – The 2020s are shaping up to be a lost decade, at best, for economic growth. This will be particularly bad for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) in the short term, but it will leave us all worse off, not least by undermining the global fight against climate change. The parallels with the 1930s – when the world also faced a major economic shock, intensifying protectionism, growing nationalism, and the weakening of multilateralism – make the situation appear all the more ominous. Then, like now, geopolitics was king.