

From semiconductors to electric vehicles, governments are identifying the strategic industries of the future and intervening to support them – abandoning decades of neoliberal orthodoxy in the process. Are industrial policies the key to tackling twenty-first-century economic challenges or a recipe for market distortions and lower efficiency?
香港 - 在今年的达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上,联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯(Antonio Guterres)对当前国际秩序的困境做出了不同寻常的坦率评估。他说,世界“在许多方面都遭受了一个完美风暴的困扰”,“我们需要合作,但我们却面临分裂。”
实际上,这个完美风暴更像是一场海啸。其中,供应链中断、能源危机、生活成本危机、全球经济增长放缓,以及气候灾难,都至少在一定程度上源于中美之间的结构性裂痕。
如果古特雷斯指出的“大分裂”发生,世界将产生“两套不同的贸易规则、两种主导货币、两类互联网体系和两个相互冲突的人工智能战略”。这种“大分裂”的代价将是巨大的。世界GDP将萎缩1.5%,即每年损失超过1.4万亿美元;价格将几乎全面上涨;全球公共产品的供给将严重下降。
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