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中国所面临的多项挑战

Jan 31, 2022 George Soros

STANFORD – 2022年将是世界历史上关键的一年。再过几天，世界上最强大的威权国家  中国，将开始举办冬奥会，并会像 1936 年的德国一样，试图利用这一景象为其严格的控制体系赢得宣传上的胜利。

我们当今的世界正在或即将做出，影响世界前进方向的重要决定。德国的选举已经开始，法国的选举将于 2022 年 4 月举行。同月，匈牙利的选民很有可能会让独裁统治者失去权力。连同普京是否决定入侵乌克兰，这些事态的发展将会决定欧洲的命运。

10月份，中国共产党第20次代表大会将决定，是否让习近平第三次连任中共总书记。然后，美国将在11月举行中期选举。

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George Soros

Writing for PS since 1997
124 Commentaries

George Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management and the Open Society Foundations. A pioneer of the hedge-fund industry, he is the author of many books, including The Alchemy of Finance, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means, and The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival? His most recent book is In Defense of Open Society (Public Affairs, 2019).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 25 Comments on this article

KaySoon Lim Feb 9, 2022

Soros view of China is tinted with his younger days of communism. As such, he cannot see China as it is, a five thousand years' nation where Communism was a aberration of governance, tried and modified back to her traditional governance root. The people in charge are responsible for the well-being of the people that accepted their leadership and a guided principle of being answerable to the heavens above. As such, he just cannot understand why China continue to improve and advance, instead of collapsing just like the Soviet Union. He is always looking at how China will fail, even when China is growing from strength to strength. Nevertheless, all nations are going through difficult times to come, with financial excesses and Covid-19 impact on global economy. While China has bite the bullet in reining in the financial excesses, most developed economies are still wantonly printing their money, letting inflation run away.
Schumpeter's creative destruction will works her way through the Chinese economy, slowing down the economy, but in a longer term, the way forward will be much healthier than the West's economy in letting inflation runaway, and then will be forced by economic forces, to slapped the breaks, causing even more severe damage. We will have a much clearer picture of each of economy, five years down the road.
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Godfree Roberts Feb 6, 2022

China – the world’s most powerful authoritarian state?

China? Authoritarian?

The pandemic revealed that the superficial differences between regimes.

Every regime, from ultra-democratic Switzerland to ultra-autocratic USA, adopted roughly the same measures when forced to contain the virus, proving that there are no limits on state power.

Nor have there ever been.

In fact, emergency is the State's default condition. Most times, power is not needed. But our obligation to obey the State is always present and the State can reactivate it at any time. And imprison or kill us if we disobey.

The US is by far the most authoritarian nation on earth right now. Where else does the leader have the sole power to:
* Declare war. Frequently.
* Issue 300,000 national security letters (administrative subpoenas with gag orders that enjoin recipients from ever divulging they’ve been served);
* Control information at all times under his National Security and Emergency Preparedness Communications Functions.
* Torture, kidnap and kill anyone, anywhere, at will.
* Secretly ban 50,000 citizens from flying–and refusing to explain why.
* Imprison 2,000,000 citizens without trial.
* Execute 1,000 citizens each year prior to arrest.
* Kill 1,000 foreign civilians every day since 1951
* Massacre its own men, women and children for their beliefs
* Assassinate its own citizens abroad, for their beliefs.
* Repeatedly bomb and kill minority citizens from the air.
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Leo Arouet Feb 1, 2022

Excellent article, like always. China is breaking down: the blame have it Xi. the growth is decline for many years, GDP chinese is less than U.S., the growth demographic is down, etc.
- Peter Schaeffer Feb 1, 2022
  
  China's GDP exceeds the US. Not the other way around. If you doubt this, check the actual production statistics. China produces more electric power than the US (roughly 2x), more steel (roughly 10x), more coal (around 6x), more concrete (roughly 30x). etc. Of course, China is far ahead of the US in Aluminum, Copper, Nickel, etc.
  - Leo Arouet Feb 2, 2022
    
    You wrong.
    - Peter Schaeffer Feb 2, 2022
      
      Sorry, but the IMF, World Bank, and the CIA all list China's GDP as greater than the USA. Just the facts. You don't have to like them.
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Martha Hill Feb 1, 2022

Thank you for a well articulated assessment of China's challenges. We don't need to complicate ourselves with numbers in order to see the light. China's fate is written on the wall if Xi gets 5 more years.
- Leo Arouet Feb 2, 2022
  
  I'm agree.
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Susan Robinson Feb 1, 2022

Here are annual CO2 emissions for some countries:
Australia = 16.8 tons per capita,
US = 16.1 tons per capita,
Canada =16.1 tons per capita,
South Korea = 13.6 tons per capita,
Russia =12.1 tons per capita,
Japan = 9.4 tons per capita,
China = 8.0 tons per capita

For RE (Renewable Energy), here are some data:
United States: Total electricity = 4,322,038 GWh, Total RE = 637,076 GWh, RE % of total = 14.7%
Japan: Total electricity = 1,057,976 GWh, Total RE = 158,822 GWh, RE % of total = 15.0%
China: Total electricity = 7,142,200 GWh, Total RE = 1,739,400 GWh, RE % of total = 24.35%
Germany: Total electricity = 514,860 GWh, Total RE = 237,610 GWh, RE % of total = 46.2%
India: Total electricity = 1,550,564 GWh, Total RE = 261,790 GWh, RE % of total = 16.88%
Australia: Total electricity = 256,563 GWh, Total RE = 37,205 GWh, RE % of total = 14.5%
Canada: Total electricity = 667,438 GWh, Total RE = 433,597 GWh, RE % of total = 65.0%

Even much poorer countries with low per capita GDP (like India and China) have higher RE % of their total electricity than some of the richest and most advanced countries (like US, Japan, Australia), surely these some of the richest and most advanced countries have to do a lot more to increase their RE.

Cumulative CO2 emissions 1750-2019:
USA = 410 billion tonnes (almost double China's cumulative CO2 emissions even though US's population is just about 1 quarter of China's population),

EU-28 countries = 365 billion tonnes,

China = 220 billion tonnes

Cumulative CO2 emissions of US and EU-28 countries together = (410 + 365) = 775 billion tonnes which is 3.5 times more than China's 220 billion tonnes.

The rich/advanced countries have to do a lot more to reduce GHG emissions especially those rich/advanced countries with low RE % of their total electricity.
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Nikolas P Jan 31, 2022

By 2049 China is projected to have an economy 4.5 -5 times larger than the U.S; and as of now it seems inevitable. In comparison, the economies of Europe and U.S combined will be less than half!
This may very well be the expiration date for the political and economic institutions of the west. And if this is the case, president Xi- righteously so- deserves to be treated as a historical and trans-formative figure.
Now, this should not be viewed - primarily by people in the west- as a negative. Humanity overall would be better.
And the people in the west should be proud that for almost 400 years their institutions contributed to the progress of humanity: after all, entropy is universal and not discriminatory.
In my opinion we should embrace this great renewal and ignore calls for war and destruction.
- Peter Schaeffer Jan 31, 2022
  
  The important other factor you have left out is the projected rise of India. Together, India and China will (very likely) dominate the world in 2049. The US and Europe will be a sideshow at best (very likely). My guess is that Asian (India, China, and other countries) dominance will peak in or around 2100. After than I have no idea what will happen. Perhaps, Africa will dominate the world after 2100.
  - Nikolas P Feb 1, 2022
    
    PS. I do not know how you reached your estimate of 3x but this assumes a Chinese economic growth of 4% per year.
    I assume that you are not deeply aware with the numbers and the state of the Chinese economy. For, the growth rate of 4% per year is not even the minimum possible; labor productivity in China alone can grow at a rate of 4% and this is based on existing technologies (without technological advancements)!
    
    So in order for your forecast of 4% to be the actual rate, some unforeseen exogenous factors must intervene that no -one knows. Perhaps a protracted war?
    - Peter Schaeffer Feb 1, 2022
      
      NP, I am not making any assumptions about future productivity growth in China and I am certainly not assuming China will suffer from a major war. History suggests that China will get involved in some minor war between now and 2100. However, I don’t think war(s) will impact China’s GDP all that much. My key assumption is that China will reach around 75% of US per-capita GDP by 2049. That would give China a total GDP of around 3X the U.S. Why 75%? Look at the other ‘little Chinas’. Here are the germane real per-capita GDP numbers (all from the IMF). Macau ($90,606 132.6%), Hong Kong ($62,839, 92.0%), Singapore ($102,742, 150.4%), and Taiwan ($59,398, 87.0%). The PRC is much bigger than the ‘little Chinas’ and is not a capitol city, so my future guesses about future PPP per-capita GDP tend to be lower.
      - Nikolas P Feb 2, 2022
        
        PS. This is not the way to come up with these projections. Your 75% GDP rule with smaller no diversified economies of insignificant industries is non-scientific.
        
        Peter Schaeffer Feb 2, 2022
        
        Japan's per-capita PPP GDP is $44,585. S. Korea's per-capita PPP GDP is $47,027. A 75% estimate for China in 2049 is hardly 'non-scientific'.
        
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- Peter Schaeffer Jan 31, 2022
  
  NP, Your estimate of the future GDP of China is too high. China certainly has more people than the U.S. However, not that many. A good estimate for 2049 might be 3X the U.S. Of course, the future population (and economic) growth of China and the US is unknown. However, looking at the 'little Chinas' (Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, and Taiwan) tends to support a 3X estimate, not 4.5-5.0X.
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Rene Macon Jan 31, 2022

"In an open society, the role of the state is to protect the freedom of the individual. In a closed society, the role of the individual is to serve the rulers of the state."

I agree! But let's not be naive. In many open societies of today, climate change and other environmental problems are declared as facts that do not allow discussion anymore but urge an inevitable "great reset" of the society. That does not leave much room for openness anymore Mr. Soros!
- Paul TIFFANY Jan 31, 2022
  
  Rene-- You state that "...climate change is declared as facts that do not allow discussion anymore...." The people declaring this as "fact" are in fact the best climate scientists in the world who have carefully analyzed the issue and drawn their conclusions. You may have noticed that those "scientists" who are climate change sceptics are overwhelmingly, if not totally, individuals with little or no standing in their profession; some might refer to them as quacks. To deny climate change today is analogous to saying that some "scientists" find that the world is flat and not round, and therefore these people should be included in any discussion of the issue. Would you be in agreement with this?
  - Peter Schaeffer Jan 31, 2022
    
    I hate to point this out... But... Global life expectancy is rising (a lot), not falling. Global crop output is rising. The UN FAO real crop price index is trend-less going back to 1960. The supposed 'Global Climate Emergency' is just BS.
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  - Rene Macon Jan 31, 2022
    
    A fact is that a doubling of CO2-concentration leads to increase of global temperature by 1,2° celsius. It's a fact, because it is possible to replicate this effect by controlled experiments. The rest, +1,8° celsius according to IPCC 6th. Assessment Report, is based on hypotheses, mostly about clouds. Just google for "An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes" in nature climate change to get an idea of the debate. Unfortunately, this article didn't made it in the 6th. report. On the other side, it's not the only one...
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Peter Schaeffer Jan 31, 2022

Like it or not, the issue of who owns the future has already been settled. I have written (many times). China is good at building dams, the U.S. is good at enforcing PC. Is China perfect? No. Does China have current and future problems? Yes. Is China teaching children that 2+2=racism? No. Is the U.S.? Sadly, yes. Wokism is burying the West, like it or not.
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