

Many argue that the combined effects of the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, Sino-American decoupling, and Russia’s war against Ukraine have dealt an irreversible blow to three decades of open trade and burgeoning supply chains. How should policymakers and businesses respond to the apparent demise of globalization, and what new paradigm might replace it?
马德里——世界秩序——或者说世界秩序的缺失——是现如今的热门话题。我们对全球结构和体系未来的执着随处可见——这种执着不仅存在于新闻会议、畅销书排行榜,甚至存在于热播的电视节目里。
人们倍感焦虑。世界似乎正在发生根本的变化:新力量登上世界舞台,此前国际行为神圣不可侵犯的规则正在公然遭到蔑视,与此同时新一轮技术进步浪潮正在扰乱整个行业经济。我们在这个快速变化的时代本能地追求结构和可预测性,不顾一切地想要了解世界和我们自身将向何处去。
当然,重要的是在这种情况下找到最佳、或至少是最可行的前进线路;可预见性奠定了成本效益分析和战略思维的基础。问题就出在我们对确定性的向往压倒了理性思维,从而将我们的思想和行动带往低效——甚至是危险的方向。
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