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政治正在染指美联储吗?

坎布里奇—从20世纪80年代初直到2008年9月金融危机爆发,美联储似乎一直在调整其主要短期利率—联邦基金利率。其政策主要由三部分组成:名义利率要比通货膨胀率上升更快;实体经济走强就提高名义利率;以及名义利率趋向长期正常值。

据此,你就可以从长期平均联邦基金利率推断正常利率。1986年1月至2008年8月间,平均通货膨胀率为2.5%(基于个人消费支出平减指数),这意味着平均真实利率为2.4%。

长期正常真实利率可视为实体经济的突生性质(emergent property)。从投资和储蓄的角度讲,经济均衡即低安全真实利率(它为投资者提供了低成本信用)所带来的好处与高真实利率(它意味着储蓄者回报较高)所带来的好处之间达到平衡。

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  1. solana114_FADEL SENNAAFP via Getty Images_libyaprotestflag Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images

    Relieving Libya’s Agony

    Javier Solana

    The credibility of all external actors in the Libyan conflict is now at stake. The main domestic players will lower their maximalist pretensions only when their foreign supporters do the same, ending hypocrisy once and for all and making a sincere effort to find room for consensus.

    1

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