亚洲要为特朗普做好准备

Nov 12, 2016 Gareth Evans

堪培拉—不论美国当选总统特朗普在执政后的行为是否会好于选战，美国的全球权威已经遭受打击，包括在其亚洲盟友和合作伙伴中间。

行使软实力——通过民主和道德榜样实现领导——对特朗普来说绝非易事，因为他表现出对真相、理性争论、基本人道体面，以及种族、宗教和性别差异的蔑视，更不用说他实际上并未获得多数选民支持这一事实了。而在行使较硬的实力方面——竭尽全力应对和平与安全的严重挑战——人们对特朗普的判断可谓毫无信心，因为他在选战期间所做出的每一项陈述要么自相矛盾，要么绝对令人警惕。

维持亚洲的安全、稳定与繁荣需要合作的环境，其中各国通过伙伴关系——而非对手关系——和彼此之间的自由贸易保护国家利益。特朗普胜选后，这一方面唯一令人感到有信心的地方是他说过的话也许一句都不会照办，比如与中国开展贸易战、不兑现结盟承诺、支持日本和韩国拥有核武器等。

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Gareth Evans

Writing for PS since 2010
73 Commentaries

Gareth Evans, a former foreign minister of Australia, is President Emeritus of the International Crisis Group, Co-Chair of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, Founding Convenor of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, and an honorary professor at Australian National University. He is the author of The Responsibility to Protect: Ending Mass Atrocity Crimes Once and For All and co-author of Nuclear Weapons: The State of Play 2015.

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Peter Schaeffer Nov 13, 2016

The foremost responsibility of America is to look after Americans, not Asians. Trump gets that. Bush/Obama/Hillary did not. Asia has staggering resources. It should not be relying on the U.S.
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 13, 2016

Gareth Evans is right about preparing for the worse if America upends its commitment with its decades-old allies abroad under the Trump regime. We all know what Trump was like during his campaign. Will he turn over a new leaf, once he takes office in January? Nobody knows. Given his age and temperament, we shouldn't expect too much of a different person.
Nevertheless the "disdain he showed for truth, rational argument, basic human decency, and racial, religious, and gender differences" had taken quite a toll on America’s moral authority and global standing. Unlike Obama who has been good at "exercising soft power" and enjoying popularity abroad, Trump has no regard for decency and political correctness. He won't be "leading by democratic and moral example." He believes in bullyism and "exercising hard power" as his means of facing "serious challenges to peace and security."
What is worrisome is that he will most unlikely surround himself with competent people, while relying on clans and cronies for advice. As he hates the establishment, vowing to "drain the swamp" in Washington, he has no regard for experts, pundits and thinktanks. There was already "little confidence in Trump’s judgment, given that almost every statement he made during his campaign was either wildly contradictory or downright alarming," now the public realises that the country may be heading toward political uncertainty.
Leaders from China and Japan to India and the countries of south-east Asia now fear that Trump's foreign policy will plunge the region into unknowns, and have the potential to change the geopolitical landscape in Asia. Although Beijing has always complained about Obama's "pivot strategy" which seeks to counterbalance China’s growing assertiveness in the region, Japan and South Korea feel the threat that China poses, not least because they are also embroiled in territorial disputes with Beijing. They resent China's unconditional support for North Korea's hostile regime, whose nuclear tests risk to usher in an arms race in Japan and South Korea to counter Pyongyang's threat.
Evans highlights the strong ties between America and Australia in history. But Canberra will have to recalibrate its relations with Washington and focus more on strengthening regional ties. China and Indonesia are geographically closer and will likely dominate Australia's focus of interests. Evans believes Canberra would not "walk away from its alliance with the US," given the "cultural comfort zone" the two continents share.
The author is now more "skeptical of American policies and actions than in recent decades," and insists "Australia should become much more self-consciously independent, and assign much higher priority to building closer trade and security ties with other countries like Japan, South Korea and India. It will view its regional allies through the prism of a pragmatist, hoping - for better or for worse - have more success, rather than being at America's beck and call, which in the past had restrained Canberra from forging closer ties to China.
The rivalry between the US and China is deeply felt in the region. The author says, "no one should give ground if China overreaches, and Australia should, now more than ever, work closely with our Asian neighbors to ensure that it does not." Therefore it opts for a win-win situation, by recognising "the legitimacy of China’s new great-power aspirations, and engage with it non-confrontationally." The author sees a chance for Australia to play an important role in Asia, by setting up a "common regional-security framework based on mutual respect and reciprocity, not least when confronting regional threats such as North Korea’s nuclear chest-beating."
The author has a strong message to America: "We can only hope that Trump will dispel our worst fears when he is in office. But in the meantime, Australian and other regional policymakers should adhere to a simple mantra: More self-reliance. More Asia. Less US."
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kavaseri krishnaswamy Nov 13, 2016

A decade ago Simon Peres told us (visiting Indian journalists) that it was time Israel, India, Australia and Japan began seriously to coordinate their policies. He reminded us that these were the practising democracies in the region. The time has come.
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Armin Schmidt Nov 12, 2016

"More self-reliance. More Asia. Less US. "
According to my thinking this seems very trendy. And rightfully so. What I call "Subgroup liberation" is a global megatrend on all social scales. I wrote down some thoughts in my account's biography.
Short version: Subgroup liberation is done with mutual ignorance and damage. Eventually spiralling with nukes.
A rule-of-thumb to end up this dilemma:
"Subgroup liberation demands fairness and compensation."
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