Politics

دونالد ترامب وإضعاف القوة الأمريكية الناعمة

Feb 6, 2018 Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

كامبريدج - إن الأدلة واضحة للغاية. أدت رئاسة دونالد ترامب إلى إضعاف قوة أمريكا الناعمة. وأشار استطلاع أجرته مؤسسة غالوب مؤخرا في 134 بلدا، أن 30٪ فقط من المستجيبين لهم موقف إيجابي تجاه الولايات المتحدة تحت قيادة ترامب. وهو انخفاض بنحو 20 نقطة مئوية منذ رئاسة باراك أوباما. وأشار مركز بيو للأبحاث إلى أن الصين - بدعم من 30٪ - وصلت تقريبا إلى التكافؤ مع الولايات المتحدة. وفي المؤشر البريطاني "سوفت باور 30" (القوة الناعمة 30)، تراجعت أمريكا من المركز الأول في عام 2016 إلى المركز الثالث في العام الماضي.

وقال المدافعون عن ترامب إن القوة الناعمة غير مهمة. وأعلن ميك مولفاني مدير مكتب الميزانية في البيت الأبيض عن "ميزانية القوة الصلبة"، حيث خفض تمويل وزارة الخارجية والوكالة الأميركية للتنمية الدولية بنسبة 30٪. بالنسبة لأولئك الذين يتصرفون تحت شعار "أمريكا أولا"، كل ما يفكر به بقية العالم هو ذو أهمية ثانوية. هل هم على حق؟

تقوم القوة الناعمة على الجاذبية، وليس على الإكراه (العصي) أو المال (الجزر). فهي تحتضن الناس بدلا من إجبارهم. وعلى المستوى الشخصي، يدرك الآباء الحكماء أن قوتهم ستكون أكبر وستستمر لفترة أطول إذا كانوا يمثلون القيم الأخلاقية السليمة لأطفالهم، ولن يعتمدوا فقط على الضرب أو العقوبات أو التهديد بأخذ مفاتيح السيارة.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Gerald Silverberg Feb 11, 2018

This overlooks the fact that there is a certain "soft power" of authoritarianism in the form of fear, intimidation, awe, and even admiration among a certain class of people.

Thus Putin, Orban, Erdogan and Trump wield a soft power just in being able to manipulate and dominate public discourse, for better or worse. Fake news and bluster can be more efficient than military force or appeals to human rights and decency. Or so it seems at the moment.
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ferdinand van Dieten Feb 10, 2018

I miss one dimension of soft power: it works - I think even mainly - by convincing the population of other countries that you offer a good alternative model to their own engorgement. Such "popularity" limits the space of manoeuvring of a foreign government.
But as the USA are incapable to develop their model of government and stick to the original colonists organisation of power and representation (the winner takes all and a 2 party division that marginalises minorities) The USA model is becoming less and less attractive. Trump is merely a symptom of this "colonists" model of governance.
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j. von Hettlingen Feb 7, 2018

Joseph S. Nye says that the US will survive the Trump presidency and "recover its soft power," because the country is "more than either Trump or the government." Since he took office he has demeaned the presidency by flouting the laws and violating the Constitution, making him a highly unsavoury leader at home and abroad. Fortunately America still has a vibrant civil society and independent media that stand up to him.
The author says a country’s "soft power comes primarily from three sources" - culture, political values and policies. American popular culture is unsurpassed - widely known for its creativity and business nous. Even though Trump himself trashes liberal values like democracy and human rights and abandons policies on immigration and environment etc., at home many state governments, private organisations and individuals are scrambling to save them.
For decades American institutions - companies, universities, foundations, churches, and other non-governmental groups - have been active projecting "soft power of their own which may reinforce or be at odds with official foreign policy goals. And all of these private sources of soft power are likely to become increasingly important in the global information age." They will have to increase their activities, because Trump’s budget director, Mick Mulvaney, opted for a “hard power budget” and cut spending for the State Department and the US Agency for International Development "by 30%."
US leadership has nose-dived under Trump, who doesn't hesitate to infuriate other countries, losing clout and allies abroad. His break from the Paris climate agreement; his utilitarian approach in relentless pursuit of gains; erratic behaviour; bellicose and inconsistent rhetoric on Twitter; picking of needless fights with other leaders in - at times - trivial issues etc. have made America a reduced force, simply because of the number of objectionable qualities of the man at the top.
What makes the matter worse is that Rex Tillerson is also a foreign policy novice like Trump. The State Department is paralysed, with hundreds of key posts unfilled. The US has lost the moral authority it much enjoyed under Obama - a fact visible in the way Trump was received at international gatherings, such as the G20 summit in Hamburg last July. European leaders had not forgotten how Trump at a NATO summit in Brussels earlier in May pushed aside the prime minister of Montenegro and moved past him, with no word like “Excuse me” or “Pardon me.”
Elected leaders do care what their publics think about Trump and the US. He is personally disliked across the globe, with most people seeing him as totally unqualified, arrogant, intolerant and dangerous, who does not care about other people than his own supporters. His low approval ratings make it harder for leaders to publicly cooperate with his administration – even when it might be in their interest to do so.
More than three-quarters of the world has little or no confidence in Trump’s global leadership and his policies. Yet Trump’s supporters argue that his “America First” policies are never intended to make him popular abroad, and that he relies mainly on his base to boost his ego and popularity. But his relentless and childlike outbursts are causing untold damage to the country's standing. Since the world had depended upon American stability and leadership for decades, Trump's reckless behaviour has implications that extend far beyond the US borders. But America had survived anti-American sentiments in different eras and managed to bounce back. People need to have patience when they want to see Trump removed - in a free and fair democratic process.
- lt lee Feb 8, 2018
  
  Is the US still a democracy? OK, people are still voting.
  But should one equate a government voted into existence by the people with a government governed with the consent of the people? (For those puzzled by my question, try this: Should one equate parents who consent their son's existence with parents who consent their son's beating them?)
  
  Rasmussen Poll has conducted 6 polls asking likely voters on whether the US government has the consent of the governed. Results: Few agreed, around 20%.
  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/july_2017/few_think_government_has_consent_of_the_governed
  
  You repeat Nye's "soft power comes primarily from three sources" - culture, political values and policies" claim. Please explain how soft power could be expressed without "trust." A robber pointing a gun at someone would not have any hard power if his threat of pulling the trigger was not believed. The same for soft power. You tell someone that cooperating with the US government will bring something good. You are only as convincing as he could trust the US government.
  
  Is Trump really an aberration? Or is Trump inevitable because given that the US society, as a whole, was not a democratic society for years.
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lt lee Feb 6, 2018

"I am father of four, but my influence – never mind power – over three of these children is minimal. Even the youngest, who is five, is already learning how to defy my authority." -- Niall Ferguson

Ferguson has no power over his kids. But why?
Hard power wise, he probably lacks credibility over his exercising of hard power over his kids. On soft power, he is without doubt attractive to his kids. Given his intellect, no one should doubt his ability to think up favorable frameworks and to set the agenda the right way in dealing with his kids. Why not soft power?

Well, kids have their own minds. They could suspect their disbelief and accept the father's framework and let him set the agenda IF they choose to trust him. The father would have little power if the kids do not trust him. In short, no soft power in the absence of trust.

American people don't trust their own government, why should other people trust the American government. Nye could blame Trump over US soft power. But lacking trust is an old American problem which predates Trump for decades.
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Steve Hurst Feb 6, 2018

In an information age the emperor is wearing new clothes
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