A view of the Goldman Sachs headquarters in London

النمو الاقتصادي لم يعد كافيا

Oct 25, 2017 Manuel Muñiz

مدريد ــ يبدو أن بيانات الاقتصاد الكلي القادمة من الاقتصادات المتقدمة في العالم ربما تكون غامضة عندما ننظر إلى كل منها بمعزل عن غيرها. ولكن عندما يجري تحليلها بشكل جماعي، تكشف هذه البيانات عن حقيقة مزعجة: فإذا لم تتغير كيفية توليد الثروة وتوزيعها فسوف تشتد حِدة التشنجات السياسية التي اجتاحت العالم في السنوات الأخيرة.

ولنتأمل هنا على سبيل المثال الأجور وتشغيل العمالة. في الولايات المتحدة والعديد من الدول الأوروبية، ظل متوسط الرواتب راكدا، على الرغم من تعافي أغلب الاقتصادات من الأزمة المالية التي اندعت في عام 2008 فيما يتصل بالناتج المحلي الإجمالي ونمو الوظائف.

وعلاوة على ذلك، لم تؤد الزيادات في تشغيل العمالة إلى تباطؤ أو تراجع انخفاض حصة الأجور في الدخل الوطني الإجمالي. بل على العكس من ذلك، ذهبت أغلب الثروة التي نشأت منذ أزمة 2008 إلى الأثرياء. وربما يفسر هذا مستويات الاستهلاك المتدنية التي تميز أغلب الاقتصادات المتقدمة، وفشل السياسة الضريبية المفرطة التساهل في دفع التضخم إلى الارتفاع.

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The Mystery of the Missing Inflation Economics
Frank Augstein/Getty Images

The Mystery of the Missing Inflation

Nouriel Roubini
Next week the US Fed’s Open Market Committee will meet with inflation still below its target. And Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney is suggesting that UK rates could rise soon. The US, UK, and the global economy have been expanding modestly for at least a year. Yet inflation is still flatlining.
describes advanced-country central banks’ dilemmas as GDP growth rises but the price level doesn’t.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 Comments on this article

Bernhard Kopp Oct 30, 2017

I am afraid that it will not work with salaries and benefits. A satisfactory employee-participation is only achievable through equity participation which then in turn participates in the economic growth. This will lead to an ongoing dilution of shareholder's equity through shares and options to pension and health insurance funds. Agreeable methods and formulas will have to be developed. In principle, employees must accumulate wealth the same way as executives have done so successfully over the past 25 years.
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Arman Oganisian Oct 29, 2017

Several flaws/gaps:
1) Minor technical note: "Consider, for example, wages and employment. In the United States and many European countries, average salaries have stagnated, ..."
"Wages" are not the same thing as "salaries".
2) High productivity growth and stagnant wages, in aggregate, doesn't mean the relationship between productivity and wages are broken. It could mean, for example, that much of the productivity growth is coming from a handful of sectors. These sectors may be getting wage increases that are buried but the aggregate number, since they're a small proportion of the aggregate.
3) Just because *wages* or *salaries* are stagnant doesn't mean other methods of compensation are stagnant. It's known that employers choose a mix of compensation: cash, vacation days, health benefits, 401k benefits, stock options, etc. So while cash compensation is stagnant, perhaps non-cash benefits has actually grown. You can't only look at cash compensation.
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Christopher Theodore Oct 27, 2017

Regarding solutions, I developed & have been promoting this economic innovation that takes the form of an "indirect people's initiative," and while such a thing is an American political tool, the economic innovation is applicable in any Nation State that has a Treasury and some form of educational infrastructure that involves testing and certifications like US diplomas, degrees and the like (which is most Member States of the UN).

On it's face the Congressional Order 101 initiative is a proposal of an evolutionary way to fund all forms of education, be it K-12, College, Trade & Tech Schools, etc.. even various forms of public training (military, law enforcement, emergency services, internships), are able to capitalize on the innovation.

The work is published here:

http://CongressionalOrder101.WordPress.com
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Karl Smithe Oct 27, 2017

Double entry accounting is 700 years old. When have you heard Capitalist, Communist or Socialist economists suggest that accounting be mandatory in our schools? None of them talk about the Depreciation of all of the durable consumer garbage either. What does Planned Obsolescence have to do with Economic Growth?
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mekaliapaulos Oct 27, 2017

Very true, Manuel. Great article!
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Robert Bruce Oct 26, 2017

The case for a #BasicIncome is becoming overwhelming but such a major chandelier must be introduced in stages to control inflation. It must also be accompanied by government intervention to provide more affordable housing, public transport, and free education and healthcare, to reduce basic living costs. Clear stages should be :

1) Introduce a tax neutral #CarbonFee and #Dividend starting at around $40 per ton and rising automatically by 10% per annum. This accelerates decarbonisation and establishes the mechanism of UBI

2) Consolidate most existing benefits and tax breaks into the UBI improving incentives to work and eliminating divisive means testing of benefits for all but most needy.

3) Introduce further taxes on rent-seeking capital and wealth to increase UBI to a minimum level of basic living for all.

Far from the doom and gloom in some comments above it should be possible to introduce these changes through popular democratic consent. Surveys show that 50-70% of voters already support the idea of basic income, so it only needs one party to present a serious policy option to get elected. Indeed the real question is once established how do you stop voters simply demanding ever higher UBI payments that might go beyond the point where they benefit the overall economy? Managing UBI effectively will require a great deal of maturity and collective responsibility for managung socially created wealth in the future.

Robert P Bruce
Author Www.TheGlobalRace.net
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B Wilds Oct 26, 2017

The idea that the way to achieve economic growth is to increase our population is flawed. Simply adding mouths to feed and efforts to merely add new workers to replace those retiring creates additional demand but is shortsighted because it ignores the problem of exploding population growth across the world. The article below focuses on what should be seen as the natural progression of economic growth.

http:///Economic Transition, Reflection Upon The Natural Progression .html
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Marc Laventurier Oct 25, 2017

The authors' commitment to the rhetoric of capitalism is remarkable. From his 'social contract' link, above: "What is clear, however, is that it will require a big change in the way the state procures its income, possibly through a reinvigorated industrial policy, large public venture capital investments and others. In essence, if wealth is concentrated in capital some form of democratisation of capital holding will be required."

PS There is no "social contract", only rhetoric.
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stephan Edwards Oct 25, 2017

Well I can't think of at least one problem. Leadership in developed have no interest whatsoever in addressing the problem. It would inconvenience the "Right" people after all the only ones that are getting hurt are deplorables. Has for a new social contract my guess.... We will end up with a 1-2% that pretty much owns it all and a whole lot of peasants scrabbling to survive. And an AI run secret police to keep it that way. The so called "Social Contract" is Bovine Fecal matter designed to keep the peasants in line. It hasn't meant anything since what the early 70's.
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Steve Hurst Oct 25, 2017

On the basis that Western democracies have high housing costs due to house shortages the very obvious route forward is a significant house building programme reducing house prices via supply and demand thereby leaving more money in the economy with the key demographic 25 to 45.
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Jody Tishmack Oct 25, 2017

One possible remedy would be offering a universal living wage. Personally I don't see how any country can afford to offer universal living wages to all citizens, but I agree with the idea in principle. What if we approach this solution in stages? What if we offered a living wage to certain sectors of the public for example, a parent that stays home to raise their family; or an adult child that stays at home to care for elderly parents? This could provide several positive outcomes.

More children in the US are increasingly suffering from diseases and mental health issues than previous generations. Poor eating habits are part of the issue. But also, most young children spend more time in daycare than awake with parents. Government funded programs such as head start are being de-funded. With parents working one or even two low paid jobs they have little time to prepare nutritious meals, read to their children, or spend quality time raising their children. By providing a living wage any parent that wants to provide quality stay at home care (i.e. be home to raise their children) we might reverse some of these trends.
The same could be said about our elderly parents being placed in assisted living facilities that essentially consume all of the parents wealth leaving none to pass along to their children. Why should only wealthy families be able to pass wealth from generation to generation?
If we paid a living wage to people who stay at home we remove labor from the work force and possibly cause labor prices to increase. We could also benefit our work force by providing better financial assistance to young adults that want to attend college or technical school. Free tuition combined with no interest loans to cover living expenses would make education more affordable for people that might otherwise never develop higher skills that demand better pay.
And lastly, universal health care. That one is so obviously a benefit it needs no explanation.
If we really want to make life better for everyone, here is a place to start. But it's going to take time, decades even, to see the impact. We also need to ensure that changes in political leadership will not be able to dismantle a program designed to benefit everyone regardless of political affiliation.
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النمو الاقتصادي لم يعد كافيا

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