There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil. Some of the worst elements of both the 1970s and the 2008 crash are now in play, with equity markets likely to move deeper into bear territory.
says six factors will determine how bad the next downturn will be for the real economy and equity markets.
发自纽约—— 新型冠状病毒疫情将令世界经济遭受重创,而错误的税收政策则会在短期内加剧损失并阻碍长期复苏。
危机才刚爆发几个月,公共部门的资产负债表就已经承受了巨大的压力。鉴于封锁措施和其他社会隔离规则减少了经济活动,许多发达国家政府已经启动了大规模货币和财政刺激措施。再加上税收收入暴跌和失业率飙升,政府的未来支出还将急剧上涨。
而发展中国家的前景则尤为黯淡,因为许多发展中国家缺乏实施刺激的财政空间,也担心一旦尝试刺激就会引发资本外逃。一些人甚至鼓吹财政紧缩,但该政策很可能会让重启经济和补充政府财政的愿望化为泡影。
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