Economics

هل تزكي اليابان النظرية النقدية الحديثة؟

Dec 22, 2021 Takatoshi Ito

طوكيو ــ منذ اندلاع الأزمة المالية في عام 2008، ارتفعت الديون العامة إلى عنان السماء، وخاصة أثناء جائحة مرض فيروس كورونا 2019 (كوفيد-19). وفقا لصندوق النقد الدولي، ارتفعت نسبة الدين العام إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمال في الاقتصادات المتقدمة من نحو 70% في عام 2007 إلى 124% في عام 2020. لكن الخوف من أن يتسبب الدين العام المتزايد الارتفاع في تغذية أزمات مالية في المستقبل تضاءل كثيرا، ويرجع هذا جزئيا إلى انخفاض عائدات السندات الحكومية بشدة لفترة طويلة.

على الرغم من أن العائدات بدأت تنخفض قبل هذا بفترة طويلة، في تسعينيات القرن العشرين، فإنها ظلت منخفضة بفعل التيسير الكمي بعد الركود في عام 2008 ثم في عام 2020. لا يشك سوى قِـلة من المراقبين في أن النفقات المالية الضخمة كانت مبررة لتخفيف المعاناة خلال مثل هذه الأحداث. لكن دعاة النظرية النقدية الحديثة يدفعون بهذا المنطق بضع خطوات أخرى أبعد.

يؤكد أنصار النظرية النقدية الحديثة على عدم وجود مبرر للخوف من اندلاع أزمة مالية ما دام الدين مقوم بعملة البلد ذاته، لأن التخلف عن السداد من غير الممكن أن يحدث في هذه الحالة. وعلى هذا فإن أي سحب للحافز المالي يجب أن يكون تدريجيا. وفي الوقت ذاته، يمكن استخدام إصدارات جديدة من الدين العام لتمويل الاستثمارات في البنية الأساسية، وبرامج دعم الدخل، وغير ذلك من البنود المدرجة على الأجندة التقدمية، شريطة أن يظل معدل التضخم أقل من المستوى المستهدف من قِـبَـل البنك المركزي (نحو 2% في عموم الأمر).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 3 Comments on this article

mahak Yaseri Dec 26, 2021

I thought the MMT supporters argued that governments need not borrow to pay for their expenditures at all!! Indeed government bonds may be seen as an unnessary safe asset created by governemts where there is no need for one!
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JONATHAN LLOYD Dec 23, 2021

The author does not seem to understand MMT. To say that future generations will eventually have to pay the debt is to misunderstand how money is generated in fiat currency economies. Indeed, the author does not understand the creation of money--MMT is essentially the economic theory that begins with money creation as its fundamental beginning. The first thing this writer should have done is to read a good MMT text, such as one by Mosler or Kelton, and then he may have been better equipped to tell us of Japan's tactics vis-a-vis MMT.
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David Punabantu Dec 23, 2021

The whole issue rests on value.
Fiscal consolidation in Japan is the main issue. It all boils down to Friedrick Hayek and the "Denationalisation of Money".
The question is that is MMT the preserve of BoJ? How is the internal and external value of the Yen maintained? The concept of one value as a yard stick is what has driven Japan's debt profile by converting international value loaded debt to domestic debt. A case in point of the current "one value system" .
An example of International Monetary Fund ( IMF) fixed cross rates is seen clearly on the 10th August 2021. The exchange rate between the US dollar and British Sterling pound on the 10th of August 2021 was £1 per US$1.385. This "1.385" cross rate appears in the US dollar and British Sterling pound of other national currencies as if they have the same US dollar/British Sterling pound liquidity in their national money markets to justify such an IMF fixed cross rate.
For example the British Sterling pound exchange rate against the Japanese Yen on the said date was ¥152.878 per £1 against ¥110.371 gives a cross rate of 1.385. The Chinese Yuan Renminbi value against the British Sterling pound was ¥8.973 per British Sterling pound and ¥6.478 per US dollar gives a cross of 1.385. The North Korean Won against the British Sterling pound stood at W1,245.795 against W899.978 against the US dollar gives a cross rate of 1.385.
The Euro against the British Sterling pound stood at €1.179 against €0.8519 per US dollar to give a cross rate of 1.385.
The Canadian dollar against the British Sterling pound stood at C$1.739 and C$1.256 per US dollar to give a cross rate of 1.385.
The Swedish Krona value in British Sterling pound stood at kr12.055 against kr8.7048 per US dollar giving a cross rate of 1.385. The Indian Rupee Sterling pound value on the 10 the August 2021 stood at R102.967 against R74.36 per US dollar giving a cross rate of 1.385. The South African Rand Sterling value stood at R20.422 against R14.752 per US dollar giving a cross rate of 1.385.
The Zambian Kwacha Sterling pound value on the 10th August 2021 stood at K26.7427 per Sterling pound and the US dollar value stood at K19.3069 per US dollar giving a IMF cross rate of 1.385.
Does it mean that North Korea, the European Union, Japan, Canada, China, India etc all have US dollar and Sterling pound liquidity within their money markets to justify the IMF fixed cross rates day in and day out?
Japan like all world currencies need free floating cross rates. An example of this was noted by the by the IMF managing director Mr. M. Gutt at Harvard University on the 13th February 1948, when he presented a paper entitled The Practical Problem of Exchange Rates.
Then "the official direct Sterling-US dollar rate ruling in Britain and the United States is one Sterling pound to US$4, but the Lira-Sterling and Lira-US dollar direct rates are such that the Sterling pound-US dollar cross-rate in Italy is one Sterling pound to US$2.6." (Tew Brain (1967) p.79)
Americans found it cheaper to purchase goods from the UK via Italy until the IMF stepped in and imposed the IMF fixed cross-rate system in favor of the UK and not Italy nor the US. Even corporate Britain lost out on the increased consumer demand, as Americans demanded from the UK British products that appeared cheaper through the Italian money markets.
Corporate and ordinary Americans at the end of the day because of the IMF fixed cross-rate system, had to pay out more US dollars for the pound, while corporate Italy lost out on US dollar inflows because the market price of the US dollar to the Sterling pound was temporary in a pseudo-free floating Lira driven market system based on Lira liquidity.
Therefore Japan firstly needs free floating cross rates in which the currency market arbitrage operation would equalise cross rates between markets. Thus the value of the Yen would vary between markets linked to actual trade as the manifestation of "dear" and "cheap" Yen occurs. Without this the "dear" Yen value manifests as "debt" absorbed by the government in it issuing only Yen bonds.
This variance in value covers Friedrick Hayek "Denationalisation of Money" as the value of money gets decentralised into national money markets as it varies from place to place and time to time.
This deals with the external value of the Yen. The internal value of the Yen deals with its budget. A budget connect exceed 100 percent of the GDP. Thus at 12 months in a year the threshold tax is 8.3 percent per month. Therefore taxes above this create a recycling effect. If taxes say compounded reach 35 percent per month, it practical means every 30 days government is able to collect the budget and spend it and re-collect it and spend it in a cyclical pattern. This duplicates the printing of money under Keynesian economics except it is not physical but recycling the budget.
It is here that It is here that the “tax value dynamics” structure when examined appears to get compounded. For example, Government extracts the budget every 30 days, which can be termed an economic year, as opposed to a calendar year, as it consumes 37.1 percent of the GDP leaving 62.9 percent of the GDP value for the Yen. As it moves to the next 30 days although 37.1 percent is consumed, in real terms it is against the remaining GDP value of 62.9 percent and not 100 percent, meaning the second 37.1 percent in value terms against 62.9 percent is really 58.9 percent.
The next third cycle yields 37.1 percent of the GDP left facing 25.8 percent which in value terms is 143 percent. By the end of the fourth cycle it’s now minus 41.3 percent in real terms.
Thus at each progressive economic year, the value amount of the GDP in real value terms left in the economy decreases until it enters a negative condition.
This is known as Zeno’s Paradox, expressed by Greek philosopher Zeno of Elea (c.490-430 BC), and hence the purchasing power of the Yen always falls as taxes in value terms get compounded as a result of increasing economic years.
It is this fall that marks the increased BoJ bonds.
The bottom line in Japan can be seen through China and as noted by firmer editor of the London Financial Times Mr Geoffrey Crowther in his book "An outline of money" in which he noted “if a purchaser is someone who want D-marks in order to pay for German exports, the fact that he can get his German D-marks cheap is equivalent to a reduction in the price of exports; it will stimulate sale in exactly the same way as an ordinary depreciation of the exchange rate” (Crowther (1951) p.260).
China follows the "reduction in the price of exports" to stimulate US dollars inflows. However in both cases it is German D-marks buying German goods. Although China quotes in US dollars there final payment settlement is in Chinese Yuan Renminbi.
The Japanese bonds only being bought by Japanese Yen provides some clues to the underlying axioms of the supply and demand doctrine.
Adam Smith's underlying axioms see that British goods are bought by the British Sterling pound. If a German with D-marks wanted British goods they first have to change their German D-marks into British Sterling pounds and use those pounds to buy British goods.
Unfortunately most of the developing world sell their exports directly into the US dollar by-passing their national currencies which in effect makes their exports as if produced by the US dollar. Their currencies are not weighted by their production but by the production rate of US dollars.
Conclusively Japan is in a unique place in which the value flows will look unsustainable but sustainable as it through the London Metal Exchange "acceptable currencies" buys it's raw materials directly in Japanese Yen. Thus value moves in on one hand directly into the Yen to sustain BoJ bonds.
The whole issue is "value" and the denationalisation of it to reach fiscal consolidation.
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