With a likely rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election, America and the rest of the world were heading into a perilous period even before the latest conflagration in the Middle East. Turmoil in the region will cloud the broader economic outlook – and could dim Biden’s chances.
worries global economic and political developments will put Donald Trump back in the White House.
Around the world, foreign-policy strategists are grappling with new international dynamics, from the Sino-American rivalry and ongoing hot wars to the broader breakdown in multilateral global governance. However, there is much debate about whether global power and alignments are truly shifting, and in what ways.
consider whether the world will become more multipolar or “non-aligned” in the new year.
It is hard to see anything good coming from the current spasm of violence between Israel and Hamas. But this tragedy, which has forced both Israelis and Palestinians to stare into the abyss, might prove to be a turning point that will clear the path for a lasting peace.
considers how the current conflagration might pave the way for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
特拉维夫 — 和平进程往往充满不确定性,尤其是在冲突旷日持久,双方的意图、意愿和遵守协议的能力仍不明朗的情况下。向死敌做出让步所带来的巨大政治代价往往使谈判在达成任何协议之前就注定要失败。
这在最近解密的1993年以色列内阁会议的议定书中一目了然,这次 会议批准了与巴勒斯坦解放组织(巴解组织)的第一份奥斯陆协议。记录显示,最终失败的迹象从一开始就很明显。
当时,以色列总理拉宾希望巴解组织主席阿拉法特能够阻止哈马斯和伊斯兰圣战组织的崛起,协助平息 1987年后肆虐约旦河西岸和加沙的起义。但阿拉法特担心被视为“合作者”,拒绝成为以色列的安全分包商。拉宾的宿命论的外交部长西蒙·佩雷斯(Shimon Peres)警告说,“整个巴解组织”可能会“分崩离析”,“类似伊朗的哈马斯”可能会取而代之。与此同时,以色列国防军总参谋长埃胡德·巴拉克(Ehud Barak)曾说过一句名言,即该协议“的漏洞比瑞士奶酪还多”。
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