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恶性危机

Dec 14, 2021 Bill Emmott

伦敦—那些对 COP26 气候变化会议、美国总统拜登和中国国家主席习近平最近举行的虚拟峰会的不确定结果感到失望的人，或者对实现新冠疫苗平等的措施感到失望的人，需要对我们生活的世界有所觉醒. 在当前情况下，全球治理肯定会令人失望。

在名为《全球状况》（Our Global Condition）的新报告中，我和我的全球疫情后政策委员会（Global Commission for Post-Pandemic Policy）同事将这些困难归因为我们面临四个而非一个危机。唯一的出路是认识到全球公共卫生、气候变化、公众信任和民主合法性下降以及地缘政治不稳定之间的联系。这些问题是相互关联的。割裂视之将使我们无所适从。

环境压力增加了人畜共患病传播给人类并演变为瘟疫的可能性。瘟疫带来的社会、政治和经济压力会助长破坏社会团结的态度和行为，使政府更难获得对强有力的脱碳措施的公众支持。在当今各国和政治制度下，对机构的和专业权威的信任因为 2008 年金融危机遗留问题和社交媒体的增长而削弱，应对新危机仍然是一场艰苦的斗争。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 2 Comments on this article

Tony Ph Dec 30, 2021

global wealth distribution is too slant and still continue exacerbating, is it not a major crisis?
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Mirek Fatyga Dec 16, 2021

It is curious, though common, that this article does not mention the primary intertwined crisis: the world population.

The population of the world nearly tripled in my lifetime. This rather rapid population growth is neither good nor bad, but it has very clear consequences.

If one wanted to extend North American oil consumption per capita to 8 billion people, the world oil production would have to increase by ~600%. To the EU level, by ~300%. This is just one resource.

It is not that this population cannot be ultimately accommodated. It probably can be. But it can be said without hesitation that the pace of population growth outran the capability of present day industrial civilization to accommodate. Major changes are required and cut and paste will not work.

While these changes are occurring, there are tensions. Downward pressure on living standards in the developed world, invisible lid on the development in the developing world. Both lead to a varying degree of social frustration and destabilization.

This is why COP26 had to fail and future COPs will fail as well. Asking developing countries to abandon fossil fuels means asking them to stay poor. In fact, Western Left may face some charges that it is thoroughly unfamiliar with, namely engaging in neo-colonialism. Trying to force the developing world to limit the use of fossil fuels and stay poor, while the West continues to use them and stays rich, since democratic forces will give a boot to politicians that do not react to declining standards of living.

All of this would be perhaps justified if there was some sort of planetary emergency related to carbon dioxide. But there is none. There is essentially zero evidence outside of computer models that carbon dioxide is the primary driver of the climate change. The assumption that it is the primary driver is forcibly implanted into the models through a factor called climate sensitivity. Such models are useless as a predictive tool, and socially dangerous if taken seriously.

One cannot reform governance if the reform is based on false representation of the actual world, thought up in elite echo chambers. This gets even worse if the elites can be shown to personally benefit, aka get rich, from the narrative.

The greatest imperative is to return to sobriety and honesty:

1. Oil, among other resources, is not just running out. It has run out already. Under the rosiest scenarios of oil production there is not enough oil to accommodate 8 billion people into decent standards of living.

2. The West has to start moving away from fossil fuels because of (1), not imaginary global warming.

3. During the transition period it is critical to maintain the production of fossil fuels. Politically motivated suppression of fossil fuels production will lead to an energy crisis which will deepen social instability. Living people cannot be parked on the shelves, waiting for times to improve. Destabilized society falls apart and times never improve, or improve only after much bloodshed, this time around with nukes in hand on day one.

4. If the energy crisis in (3) is explained by claims of planetary catastrophe that is not really in evidence, Elites will further loose their credibility and social instability will deepen. Democracies may finally fall.

5. In fact, (4) has already happened to a considerable degree. Right wing has been saying, for quite some time, that global warming theory is really an instrument of social control in furtherance of the goals of dismantling free markets and the Capitalism in general. Public health measures due to Covid19 have been interpreted in the same light. Much of the resistance to public health measures and the vaccine comes from this conviction. If you don't believe me, go to the websites and see for yourselves. It is, actually, a rather convincing narrative. What is worse, it is not just propaganda. There is an element of truth in it.

So, before you devise new governance structures in your think tanks, behind closed doors, let us, please endeavor to return to reality and, first and foremost, honesty.

Shall we?
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