Economics

Zvláštní příležitost pro zvláštní práva čerpání

Oct 30, 2015 José Antonio Ocampo

NEW YORK – Nedávným výročním zasedáním Mezinárodního měnového fondu a Světové banky v peruánské Limě dominovala diskuse o slabosti několika rozvíjejících se a rozvojových ekonomik. Tato diskuse se však velmi málo zaměřovala na klíčovou příčinu: globální měnový systém. Mnohem víc se toho řekne příští měsíc na sboru guvernérů MMF, ačkoliv zůstává otevřenou otázkou, co fond nakonec udělá.

Problém, s nímž se rozvíjející se a rozvojové ekonomiky potýkají, vyvěrá z faktu, že příliv kapitálu do nich má silně procyklický charakter. Když tyto ekonomiky rychle rostly – zejména v porovnání s rozvinutými ekonomikami –, přitahovaly obrovské množství kapitálu. Jak se však rizika násobila, začal kapitál proudit zpět do země emitující rezervní měnu – tedy do Spojených států. USA mají koneckonců nakročeno ke zvýšení úrokových sazeb a dolar posílil prakticky vůči všem světovým měnám.

V minulosti tento vývoj vždy nakonec vedl ke korekci, kdy rostoucí schodek amerického běžného účtu způsobil znehodnocení dolaru. Tyto korekce – v letech 1979-1980, 1990-1991 a 2007-2008 – však zároveň byly vždy spojeny s globálním zpomalením či přímo s krizí.

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José Antonio Ocampo

Writing for PS since 2006
53 Commentaries

José Antonio Ocampo, a former United Nations under-secretary-general and a former minister of finance and public credit of Colombia, is a professor at Columbia University, a member of the UN Committee for Development Policy, and a member of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation. He is the author of Resetting the International Monetary (Non)System (Oxford University Press, 2017) and co-author (with Luis Bértola) of The Economic Development of Latin America since Independence (Oxford University Press, 2012).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

mtcmom222a Loppy Oct 29, 2019

You maybe right about SDR'S...but Your view on Corporate Taxation( your Other article)....not so much .... CORPORATIONS do not pay taxes.. people pay taxes ..and it's usually the working class and middle class workers who end up paying..taxes are just another labor expense...at best tax CORPORATIONS who produce for real customers in the
Private Sector at 10% and CORPORATIONS living off TAXPAYERS money at 40%+... By definition of Liberal Economists... Rich People and CORPORATIONS have "pricing power"...so at best any taxes are just factured into these Parties Prices (whether named PROFITS, SALARIES etc)....
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jagjeet sinha Nov 15, 2015

Satoshi Nakomoto perhaps the perfect IMF chief - to run the BITCOIN business for the Bretton Woods Institutions.
A currency that serves transactional needs of the World - in a ZIRP regime.
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Leonard Tekaat Nov 8, 2015

Capital flow can be distorted by monetary policy of the central bank. A good example would be the 1979 increase in interest rates of fed rate to the high teens. This move by the Federal Reserve caused a deep world recession. If Congress had enacted the 2% Appreciation/Inflation Taxation Policy would have helped prevent the need for such a large increase in interest rates or the need to reduce the fed rate to .25% following the 2008 financial crisis For more information about the 2% Policy go to, wp.me/p42WQA-7c were you find the article "Porposed Solution For Modern Economies That Create Financial Crisis And Bubbles"
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Gary Stegen Nov 2, 2015

"The problem emerging and developing economies are facing stems from the fact that their capital inflows follow a strongly pro-cyclical pattern. When they were growing rapidly – especially compared to the advanced economies – they attracted massive amounts of capital. But as risks multiplied, capital started to flow back toward a reserve-issuing country – namely, the United States. After all, the US is set to raise interest rates, and the dollar has appreciated against virtually all of the world’s currencies."

So what material difference would use of SDRs make for the scenario above? During good times capital flows in to emerging and developing countries. As risks multiply investors perceive better opportunities elsewhere capital starts to flow back out, e. g. towards to U.S. or perhaps elsewhere. It is not obvious how use of SDRs for reserves would affect the underlying capital flows, which are determined primarily by investor expectations and perceptions of relative economic performance and risks. So; what difference does it make to the emerging and developing countries if their reserves are in the form of SDRs versus dollars versus some other basket of currencies?
- lt lee Nov 6, 2015
  
  A country with access to SDR is one that has access to other hard currencies. US Fed refuses to have currency swap agreement with developing countries for obvious reason. China, in contrast, is willing to enter currency swap agreement which could provide hard currencies to needy counterparties.
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Camila Villard Duran Nov 1, 2015

Dear Ocampo, I absolutely agree with you: the time for the SDR is now - more than ever. Considering the G20 presidencies in 2015 and 2016 being held by emerging powers, it is time to put this very important institutional creation in practice to solve liquidity problems of emerging and developing countries. However, I disagree with you on how to do that: the future of the SDR, in my opinion, is less as world money and more as central hub for liquidity in a variety of supranational currencies (including, the RMB). The focus of the policy debate should change from the SDR as money per se towards the improvement of the SDR Department. I explained my argument in a recent policy brief published by the GEG /University of Oxford: http://www.globaleconomicgovernance.org/avoiding-next-liquidity-crunch-how-g20-must-support-monetary-cooperation-increase-resilience-crisis
Thank you for your op-ed. It is very insightful! All the best, Camila Duran
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Benedict Voon Nov 1, 2015

So, which currency you may suggest to replace US dollars?
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