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2022 年的大问题

Dec 9, 2021 Jim O'Neill

伦敦—随着日历年接近尾声，假装知道未来 12 个月会发生什么的室内游戏已经开始。然而，当谈到 2022 年（及以后）时，我不确定这是否值得假装。我不记得以前有过如此多的大问号笼罩着如此多的重大经济问题。

这种深刻的不确定性对于金融市场来说尤其有趣。如果需要关注的几项发展中的任何一项出现负面转变，都会对今天高涨的市场带来可怕影响。

除新冠肺炎之外，最紧迫和最热门的问题之一是通货膨胀。今年的价格上涨是暂时的，还是不详的预兆？我无用的回答是，“我不知道。” 尽管我确实在去年这个时候认为，通胀将成为比疲软的 GDP 增长更重要的问题，但现在，当我展望 2022 年时，我仍然不太确定。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

john boveri Dec 19, 2021

I wonder what Jim could mean by this? -- "Whether the increasingly important Chinese economy can be better integrated into the global economy remains to be seen."
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Peter Roney Dec 9, 2021

I have followed Jim for many years and I am always impressed with his ability to both summarize complex issues and at the same time to exhibit humility about the vulnerability of his own views and forecasts. He succinctly enumerates the key economic issues of the day (with thanks also to Michael for reminding us about property indebtedness). I was not aware that global poverty was on the rise.

Jim's brief was surely to focus on economic factors, but I wonder if to those we must add geopolitics. Ukraine and Taiwan are obvious potential flash points, but there are also many others. My point is simply that the scope for political 'mistakes' and enormous unintended consequences may be at the highest that I have seen in my lifetime (I was born in 1949). I wish I had more confidence in our political leaders around the globe, but sadly I do not. Perhaps other readers are more optimistic?
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Michael Harrington Dec 9, 2021

Missing here is the potential deflation scenario emanating from China's property meltdown. Evergrande is the tip of the iceberg and it's doubtful that Fed reflating of the US$ along with the other C-5 currencies will be able to mitigate the deflationary effects of a property bubble that is the Mother of All Property bubbles in history. The problem for the global economy will be surviving the tsunami. But it may be a buying opportunity for US$ real assets. And one knows not when it occurs, in 2022 or later.
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