furman6Hennadii Minchenko UkrinformFuture Publishing via Getty Images_ukraine atm

Economics

乌克兰战争的经济后果

Feb 25, 2022 Jason Furman

坎布里奇—俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵迅速而剧烈，但其经济后果的实现要慢得多，也不会那么引人注目。这场战争本身是极其悲惨的，首当其冲的是乌克兰人民，但对俄罗斯人和全球总体秩序而言也是如此。当这发生这种事情时，我们希望它就像一场寓言剧，所有的糟糕后果在包括经济在内的各个方面都同等剧烈地上演。但经济不会这样展开

诚然，金融市场对俄罗斯入侵的消息反应迅速。主要全球股指 MSCI 所有国家世界指数跌至近一年来的最低水平。石油价格升至每桶100美元以上，而欧洲天然气价格最初飙升近70%。

这些能源价格的上涨将对全球经济产生负面影响。欧洲尤其脆弱，因为近年来几乎没有减少对俄罗斯天然气的依赖，在某些情况下——尤其是放弃核能的德国——甚至加剧了这种依赖。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

NM Wander Feb 28, 2022

Most, if not all, of the thinkers and writers of these columns start with an assumption that somehow "the people" of Russia and/or "the people" of Ukraine have any influence at all on the economic decision making affecting their lives.
...
this has never been the case in Russia/Ukraine. Ever.
For centuries, Russia/Ukraine have given the appearance of poverty stricken peasants ruled by Wealthy Aristorcrats, held in place by brutal force from Cossacks and other erstwhile criminal gangs.
This societal pattern remains fixed .... from Ivan the Terrible, thru the Soviet Era, right up to and including Putin and all the Oligarchs of Both Russia and Ukraine.
Inflation? Sanctions? Rationing? Consequences of War?
Just another Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovitch.
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Jeremiah Hartnett Feb 27, 2022

Sanctions will not work but if we collectively consume less oil the price will go down and Russia suffers. The West's insatiable consumption fueled by deficit spending is increasing the might of out enemies. Go on a buyers strike and harm the finance that allows Russia and China to undermine the West's principals. We do this now or we pay for it later with the blood of our youth.
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Jose Oyola Feb 27, 2022

Since “defense budgets are likely to rise in Europe, the US, and some other countries to reflect the increasingly dangerous global situation”, GDP growth prospects will be reduced, not stay unchanged as Furman affirms without presenting evidence. Defense budgets are used to make arms, not for “Build Back Better” projects. Does Furman assume US can increase its trillions-size budget deficits to pay for both?

A well-known unknown ignored by Furman is the copycat effect of Putin’s actions. China’s Premier Xi, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, Turkey’s President Erdogan, Venezuela’s President Maduro, Nicaragua’s President Ortega, Syria’s dictator Bashar, and the African dictators (too many to list here) are assessing the chances of success of their own invasions. Less worldwide security would engender less private and public growth.
- Tad Furtado Feb 27, 2022
  
  “ Does Furman assume US can increase its trillions-size budget deficits to pay for both?”
  
  Is there any evidence, anywhere that this assumption would be wrong?
  
  Where is the market discipline being heaped upon the US Treasury auctions for their spending? And if there were any, where is the evidence that the Fed could not simply expand their balance sheet and be the buyer of first or last resort of this debt?
  
  Sure, rational thinking says there has to be a limit or consequence, but so far we aren’t there. And if there is a global event that causes any concern in the other other market that might possibly absorb the flow of dollars- read Europe- that keeps the flight to “safety” mindset intact.
  
  There simply isn’t an alternative to funding US debt.
  - Jose Oyola Feb 27, 2022
    
    We are there already. Inflation is a consequence of trillion-size deficits in recent years. Rate increases by Federal Reserve in 2022 will provide the correct signals that will force UST and Congress to limit spending.
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Tony Djohan Feb 26, 2022

This begs the question of does it matter to Putin? Does GDP numbers even figure in his calculation? He does not face elections and cares little for the West's opinion.

If West-imposed economic isolation works, how come Russia is able to amass its current relative strength while constantly facing sanctions for so many years? All the conditions, oil and gas, and price, will still be there for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the West's dominance (share of world economy and trade) will diminish relatively. Also the for the foreseeable future.
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