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欧洲央行限制的终结

慕尼黑—对于许多经济学家来说,一个相当糟糕的预期已经得到证实:欧洲央行(the European Central Bank )决定让欧元区通胀。在欧洲央行7月25日召开最新政策会议之后,即将离任的欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)明确表示,欧洲央行看似无害的1.9%的通胀目标,实际上将成为未来几年扩张性货币政策新阶段的基础。这带来的影响将比欧洲央行迄今所采取的刺激措施都要大,并可能给欧洲经济造成更大风险。

我们应该记得,《马斯特里赫特条约》(Maastricht Treaty)将维持物价稳定这一单一且不可妥协的目标赋予了欧洲央行,如果从字面上理解,这将意味着通胀率为零。这与赋予其它央行的使命截然不同。然而,欧元的引入导致南欧的利率下降,引致通货膨胀泡沫,使得一些国家的物价年增长率超过2%。欧洲央行管理委员会当时辩称,价格稳定的目标不可能完全实现,并指出,一些衡量上的错误使得政策制定复杂化。因此,当局表示,他们将容忍欧元区整体平均通胀率高达2%。

由于欧洲央行管理委员会之前不重视一些国家所面临的竞争力下降风险,而且不希望减缓德国等经济停滞国家的增长速度,因此也没有采纳旨在降低通胀的限制性货币政策。

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