J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and the author of Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century (Basic Books, 2022). He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.
伯克利—美国总统特朗普和他的共和党同志们保驾大规模公司税减税通过国会批准已经过去了一年。当是时,对《减税和就业法案》的批评者说它是专为富有的股东的犬儒主义政策。但许多经济学家对它是支持的。
比如,一个著名团队——其中大部分人在此前的共和党政府中任职——在《华尔街日报》上预测减税能够提振长期GDP达3—4%,并在未来十年中“相应增加”大约0.4%的“年GDP增长”。在致国会的公开信中,100多名经济学家联署主张“[减税]所造成的宏观经济学反馈”将“足以补偿静态收入损失而有余”,这意味着该法案日后会是赤字中性的。
类似地,哈佛大学的罗伯特·巴罗(Robert J. Barro)在报业辛迪加(Project Syndicate)发表评论指出,减税将提高长期真实(经通胀调整的)人均GDP达不可思议的7%。胡佛研究所(Hoover Institution)的迈克尔·波斯金(Michael J. Boskin)在后续分析中对巴罗的分析表示了支持。
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