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Economics

بوريس جونسون يخلف وراءه فوضى الجنيه الاسترليني

Jul 8, 2022 Barry Eichengreen

بيركلي- إن حالتَيْ الاضطراب والانهيار الفوضوي اللتين تمر بهما حكومة رئيس الوزراء البريطاني، بوريس جونسون، ليستا المصدر الوحيد للذعر في المملكة المتحدة حاليا؛ بل هناك أيضًا قلق متزايد بشأن سعر صرف الجنيه البريطاني.

لقد شهد الجنيه الإسترليني انخفاضا بنحو 10٪ مقابل الدولار منذ أن بلغ ذروته ربيع العام الماضي. فقد قيل لنا أن "العملة البريطانية تُسحق في الأسواق الدولية". ومن بين العملات الخمس التي تشكل أساس الأصول الاحتياطية لصندوق النقد الدولي وحقوق السحب الخاصة، كان الين الياباني العملة الوحيدة التي كان أداؤها أسوأ من الجنيه الإسترليني.

ويبدو أن التجار ينظرون إلى الجنيه الاسترليني على أنه عملة سوق ناشئة مضطربة أكثر من كونها عملة اقتصاد متقدم مستقر. والآن، نظرا لاستقالة جونسون وما يصاحبها من حالة من عدم اليقين السياسي، يتجه الجنيه الاسترليني نحو مزيد من التراجع.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

Adrian Wu Jul 12, 2022

The problem with the UK is the lack of leaders who are competent and are not driven by self-interest. The current political culture is rotten, and it is unclear how it can be fixed.
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Thaomas H Jul 10, 2022

And in each of the cases, an earlier "fall" in Sterling would have been beneficial.

Moreover, everyone in the UK should have a little votive shrine to George Soros for keeping UK out of the Euro, even if they squandered the advantage by leaving the EU!
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Peter Quennell Jul 9, 2022

Good insights. Thatcherism Lite and Sterling (which has been slowly sinking for years and masking how there was not much growth) would never rocket the UK forward. The article correctly says UK productivity growth sucks. Boris SAID the right things - let's everyone be inventive - but he did not know how to achieve the next step. The next step is endlessly better systems, as all the fast-growth Asian countries learned from Japan (which via Deming learned from the US!). Better systems are not a rugged-individual thing, they evolve in groups. So Boris's real way forward should have been to group-group-group. Ironically the UK's Tavistock Institute is a global biggie in this.
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alex Finch Jul 8, 2022

If you want to see a mess, have a look at the mess Merkel left behind. Having returned from Australia to Europe I‘m amazed how ill-informed EU citizens are. The media in Europe is heavily influenced and controlled by politicians who will use every mishap in the US or UK to distract from their own shortcomings. The healthcare and old-age care systems for example are far worse than is generally presented by the propaganda machines. Take for example bicycles. They are big business in Europe, heavily promoted and encouraged but no one mentions that alone in Austria, a country of just 9.5M people, every year 40 to 50 die and around 10.000 have serious accidents riding a bike. Fact is everyone has dirty linen and in the US, UK and Australia it’s usually brought out in the open, but in the EU it’s covered up. In most EU countries the median net household financial wealth is very low. Most EU citizens will soon be poorer than the average Chinese, with the only wealth being inherited real estate due to a lack of wealth creation.
- K Harris Jul 8, 2022
  
  Merkel’s biggest mess was leaving Germany so dependent on Russia for energy. It was so incredibly short-sighted. She left office just in time, leaving her successor holding the bag. She was also short-sighted on NATO and Germany’s military preparedness. Never could figure out if it was sheer stubbornness or if she had some affinity for Russia that was not fully recognized.
  - alex Finch Jul 9, 2022
    
    I’m convinced that Merkel was able to stay in power for so long because she pandered to all interests and all sides to win votes, in particular the powerful German unions and industry leaders who demanded cheap Russian gas in order to remain internationally competitive, against all warnings. Pandering to all sides was perhaps something Boris Johnson was doing as well and his Party just got sick of it? Trump’s popularity may have come from his apparent refusal to compromise, his refusal to pander to the Left. The electorate seems to be looking for a new kind of leader, one that doesn’t give in to special interest groups. One that doesn’t compromise on principles. Not sure if that’s a good thing?
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بوريس جونسون يخلف وراءه فوضى الجنيه الاسترليني

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