boskin77_Alex WongGetty Images_biden jobs

تحذير من تصاعد الدين العام الأميركي

Jun 23, 2021 Michael J. Boskin

ستانفورد ــ من الواضح أن أميركا بحاجة إلى كبح جماح الدين العام المتصاعد. لكن يبدو أن الرئيس الأميركي جو بايدن حريص على فعل العكس تماما. والحق أن المخاطر أكبر من أن نتجاهلها.

في أعقاب الأزمة المالية لعام 2008، أدار الرئيس باراك أوباما أكبر عجز في الميزانية مقارنة بأي رئيس آخر منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية (مع التعديل وفقا لتأثيرات الإيرادات والنفقات التلقائية لدورة الأعمال). وتخطاه في ذلك خلفه، دونالد ترمب.

الواقع أن بايدن يخطط بايدن لأن يتفوق على سفليه. فعلى الرغم من أن إجمالي الدين الفيدرالي الأميركي يبلغ الآن 107٪ من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي - وهو رقم غير مسبوق في فترة ما بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية - إلا أن ميزانية إدارة بايدن لعام 2022 جعلت البلاد تسجل أكبر عجز في وقت السلم على الإطلاق.

To continue reading, register now.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

Already have an account? Log in

Subscribe to Project Syndicate

Enjoy unlimited access to the ideas and opinions of the world's leading thinkers, including weekly long reads, book reviews, topical collections, and interviews; The Year Ahead annual print magazine; the complete PS archive; and more. All for less than $9 a month.

Subscribe Now

Michael J. Boskin

Writing for PS since 2009
82 Commentaries

Michael J. Boskin is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was Chairman of George H.W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1989 to 1993, and headed the so-called Boskin Commission, a congressional advisory body that highlighted errors in official US inflation estimates.

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

Per Kurowski Jul 4, 2021

1988, when bank regulators decreed a 0% risk-weight for US public debt, its debt was $2.6 trillion, 50% GDP.
Now over $28 trillion, about 130% GDP and it still has a 0% risk weight.
When do you think its risk weight should increase to 0.01%?
http://unsustainabledebtsustainability.blogspot.com/2019/01/borrowing-capacity-is-asset-that-could.html
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
David Wright Jul 2, 2021

If you look back at Mr. Boskin's past essays, you will see that he's been predicting disaster from every Democratic spending proposal, but not from Republican proposals. He's been wrong without exception. But what could you expect from an individual funded by the Hoover Institute, an extreme right propaganda producer since the 1950s.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Ralph Musgrave Jun 26, 2021

I nearly died of laughter at Boskin's claim that "Historically, huge debt buildups have usually been followed by serious problems: sluggish growth, an uptick in inflation...". The UK debt / GDP ratio reached a record all time high of 250% in 1945 and steadily declined thereafter without any "sluggish growth" or "uptick inflation". Growth was good in the 1950s and 60s. Inflation was well under control in those decades and didn't get serious till the 1970s. But inflation was bad the World over in the 70s, so that presumably had nothing to do with the high 1945 debt.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Fred Carstensen Jun 23, 2021

What would we expect from a "conservative" economist at Hoover? There is nothing here that really speaks to the core problem: America has disinvested in itself for forty years. The relevant question (as it would be for a major corporation) is whether these expenditures are investments that have a measurable rate of return. And, failing to make them, what is the competitive consequence?

America once led the world in human capital and infrastructure. No more. As President Biden has emphasized, we have cut our public R&D investments 70% as nearly all our competitors, from China to Europe, have ramped up their investments (they learned from the America 'model;' only America forgot its own lessons). On one critical measure, publicly funded university-based research, America now ranks 28th, behind Slovenia. Think about that.

Here is another one--in college graduation, America was #1 in 1993; it is now 20th and sinking lower almost annually. And the ranking is much worse on critical STEM graduates; some countries are near 50% while America is in the low 20s. On numerous metrics, American education underperforms; on worker training, America probably ranks dead last among advanced economies.

And let's look at infrastructure, where we were once #1 and are now #13--only because it doesn't wear out faster. But America has by far the largest "infrastructure deficit" of any advanced economy and pays a monumental annual "tax" of perhaps $700 billion because of our rotting infrastructure.

IF Biden's effort is to address this deep deficiencies (it is in large measure), then they are investments we must make to restore our economic dynamism and global competitiveness.

America decided to stop being great decades ago; America decided it no longer wanted to invest in itself to compete for global leadership. I gather Boskin is perfectly content to accept American decline.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Emanuel Müller Jun 23, 2021

According to this set of presidents (Ob-Tru-Bi) debt is proportional to age. There is nothing troubling there as the older they get the more they ought to cherish and embellish the time they got left to live (last wish syndrome), while disregarding the long term consequences. If the US want to start decreasing there debt to gdp ratio they should set a maximum age for presidents at around 14-15 years old which will also help regarding climate change mitigating or even reversing measures.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Ray McVay Jun 23, 2021

Hmm. Given the "debt bad" tone of this post I thought, "let's see how this guy must have ravaged the Republican tax fiasco of 2017". Yeah. He's been consistently wrong.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/oWxqjZPar

تحذير من تصاعد الدين العام الأميركي

Subscribe to Project Syndicate

There Will Be Boondoggles

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

Log in/Register

تحذير من تصاعد الدين العام الأميركي

Subscribe to Project Syndicate

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification