galbraith17_Jeremy HoganSOPA ImagesLightRocket via Getty Images_US2020vote

Amerikas demokratische Zukunft

Jan 7, 2022 James K. Galbraith

AUSTIN – Nachdem der Jahrestag des Aufstands vom 6. Januar nun vorbei ist, sollten wir uns auf das Gesamtbild konzentrieren.

Die große Anomalie der US-Präsidentschaftswahl 2020 war, dass Joe Biden landesweit mehr als sieben Millionen Stimmen Vorsprung hatte, doch der Verlust von 43.000 Stimmen (in drei umkämpften Staaten) ausgereicht hätte, um die Mehrheit im Electoral College zu verfehlen und damit die Wahl zu verlieren. In Kalifornien allein hatte Biden fünf Millionen Stimmen mehr als nötig, und in New York weitere zwei Millionen.

In diesem Jahrhundert hat bisher nur Barack Obama klare Mehrheiten bei der Zahl der abgegebenen Stimmen und im Electoral College erzielt. In den Jahren 2000 und 2016 verlor der Kandidat mit den meisten Stimmen die Wahl. Im Jahr 2004 wurde das Ergebnis durch einen einzigen Staat entschieden: Ohio. Diese Anomalie ist nicht nur von bleibender Art, sondern auch verfassungskonform und daher praktisch nicht auflösbar.

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James K. Galbraith

Writing for PS since 2015
29 Commentaries

James K. Galbraith, Professor of Government and Chair in Government/Business Relations at the University of Texas at Austin, is a former staff economist for the House Banking Committee and a former executive director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. From 1993-97, he served as chief technical adviser for macroeconomic reform to China’s State Planning Commission. He is the author of Inequality: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford University Press, 2016) and Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe (Yale University Press, 2016).

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Martha Hill Jan 13, 2022

Thank you for articulating "US democracy in peril" so well. Republicans are terrified they may lose again in 2024. That's why they are arming themselves for another attempt to a coup d'etat.
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Ben Leet Jan 10, 2022

The Job Quality Index (dot com) shows for December 2021 that "production and non-supervisory workers" are separated into high wage and low wage workers. 45% (46.6 million) earn an average of $64,100/year, and the low-earning 55% (56.8 million) earn $32,828/year, almost half what the high earners make. The index begins in 1990, it shows the gap widening between low to high, they used to be about 50-50, and the pay gap was less. We are becoming a low-income work-force. These are 103 million full-time year-round non-supervisory workers. Temps and partial year workers, about 30% of all workers, make less, about $19,000/year shows a Brookings report of 2018. The Brookings study leaves out 16% of workers who earn every little, less than $10,000/year. Many studies, and I choose the ALICE study by United Way charity, show about 40% of households are struggling to pay for essential goods and services. The recent US Census report, the Pulse Survey (deciphered at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, "Tracking the Covid-19 Pandemic") show that 28% in Nov. 2021 were unable to pay for basic needs. A Robert Wood Johnson with Harvard Univ. report states that 38% of households have spent-down their savings reserve, up from a pre-pandemic 19%, Oct. 2021. The EPI Economic Policy Institute has multiple studies, one titled "The New Gilded Age" says that 58% of growth went to the top 1% between 1979 and 2017, (page 12 of the pdf version). What's my point? We are not a group of happy campers. The Job Quality Index shows that average wage income for PNS workers has increased by 20.78% since 1990, the Fed's FRED graph shows "Real GDP per capita" has increased by 56.5%, same period. White males did not like Hillary C., but they switched back for Biden. Inequality was decisive in the 6 swing states. Galbraith's inequality studies are very helpful. My blog: Economics Without Greed, Part Two, http://benL88.blogspot.com
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Paul Griesbach Jan 9, 2022

Elections are nice to have, but the evidence also demonstrates that voters have virtually no impact on policy.
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